Incorporating Renewable Energy Sources into Electricity Grids: Challenges for Energy Systems Modeling

将可再生能源纳入电网：能源系统建模的挑战

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-03959
• 负责人: VanKooten, GCornelis
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: University of Victoria
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=678730
• 关键词: Incorporating; Renewable; Energy; Sources; into

In Canada, 38% of CO2 emissions come from 343 large emitters, of which 14 are coal-fired power plants that account for 12% of total CO2e emissions. At a global level, 45% or more of the electricity generated in China, Australia, India, the U.S. and Germany comes from coal. Although coal's share of primary energy is projected to decline from 30% in 2012 to 27% by 2035, coal demand will inevitably increase because overall energy demand (especially for electricity) is projected to increase by 41% over the same period. Since the public opposes nuclear energy and there are limits on the expansion of hydroelectric capacity, natural gas and renewables (wind, solar, biomass) constitute the most important alternatives to coal. Natural gas is currently viewed as the best option for replacing coal because of its much lower CO2 emissions and its abundance because of shale gas plays. Yet, policymakers and environmental organizations increasingly focus on renewable energy for addressing climate change.*****Determining the optimal mix of generators in a grid and the costs and benefits of integrating renewable energy is a difficult proposition. Engineers have developed a variety of energy system (grid allocation) models to examine these issues. These models are extremely useful for identifying physical obstacles and costs of integrating intermittent sources of generation into extant grids. The models fail to address (1) the incentives needed to decommission inefficient assets and invest in renewable generation, (2) jurisdictional differences across electricity grids (viz., command-and-control vs deregulated approaches), and (3) the need to calibrate models. Calibration is not an issue when every individual generator, bus and transmission intertie is modeled since engineering information is likely adequate; but it is a problem when similar generators of different ages are grouped together according to fuel type, say, as required to analyze policy in a broader context. In that case, operating costs need to be aggregated - a marginal cost function needs to be specified for generators operating in tandem as opposed to individually. Calibration methods help one discover the costs of operating multiple, often disparate generators as a single unit. Calibration facilitates the study of the costs and benefits of optimally integrating renewables into existing grids, or reconfiguring the generation mix. It is essential for policy analysis. These three issues have not previously been adequately explored in energy systems modeling. The current research intends to rectify this using Alberta-BC (wind/hydro) and Nova Scotia-Newfoundland and Labrador (tidal/hydro) as case studies.****Key Words: renewable energy; electricity grids and storage; calibrating mathematical models

在加拿大，38%的二氧化碳排放来自343个大型排放者，其中14个是燃煤电厂，占二氧化碳排放总量的12%。在全球范围内，中国、澳大利亚、印度、美国和德国45%或更多的电力来自煤炭。虽然煤炭在一次能源中所占的份额预计将从2012年的30%下降到2035年的27%，但煤炭需求将不可避免地增加，因为同期整体能源需求（特别是电力需求）预计将增加41%。由于公众反对核能，而且扩大水力发电能力受到限制，天然气和可再生能源（风能、太阳能、生物质能）是煤炭的最重要替代品。天然气目前被视为取代煤炭的最佳选择，因为其二氧化碳排放量低得多，而且页岩气储量丰富。然而，政策制定者和环境组织越来越关注可再生能源来应对气候变化。确定电网中发电机的最佳组合以及整合可再生能源的成本和收益是一个困难的命题。工程师们已经开发了各种能源系统（电网分配）模型来研究这些问题。这些模型是非常有用的，以确定物理障碍和成本的间歇性来源的发电集成到现有的电网。这些模型未能解决（1）淘汰低效资产和投资可再生能源发电所需的激励措施，（2）电网之间的管辖权差异（即，命令和控制与放松管制的方法），和（3）需要校准模型。当每个单独的发电机，总线和传输互联建模时，校准不是一个问题，因为工程信息可能是足够的;但是当不同年龄的类似发电机根据燃料类型分组在一起时，这是一个问题，比如说，需要在更广泛的背景下分析政策。在这种情况下，需要汇总运营成本-需要为串联运营而不是单独运营的发电机指定边际成本函数。校准方法有助于发现将多个通常不同的发电机作为一个单元运行的成本。校准有助于研究将可再生能源最佳地纳入现有电网或重新配置发电组合的成本和效益。这对政策分析至关重要。这三个问题以前没有充分探讨能源系统建模。当前的研究旨在使用艾伯塔省-BC省（风力/水力）以及新斯科舍省-纽芬兰和拉布拉多（潮汐/水力）作为案例研究来纠正这一点。*关键词：可再生能源;电网和储能;数学模型校准