Probabilistic Life-Cycle Costing: Beyond the Great Expectation

概率生命周期成本计算：超出远大期望

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-06280
• 负责人: Yuan, Xianxun(Arnold)
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: Ryerson University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=679939
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Life; Cycle; Costing; Beyond

The backbone of our nation's economy, Canada's civil infrastructure has been long suffering. The reasons are systemic and multi-faceted, ranging from funding deficits and uncoordinated systems planning, to unrelenting extreme events and inefficient engineering design and management. Meanwhile, public expectations on infrastructure have moved from safety, health and mobility to the notions such as intelligence, resilience, sustainability and flexibility. Transparency in infrastructure-related decision makings is also an important factor in winning public support. To meet these challenges, a risk-informed life-cycle infrastructure engineering (RILCIE) theory that provides a holistic solution to modern infrastructure issues must be established. The applicant's long-term research goal is to advance RILCIE by developing theories, methods and tools that can be applied to support practical decision makings. Aligning with this long-term goal, the proposed research program aims to answer a burning question that arises in almost every stage of the infrastructure life cycle: How much does it cost and how much contingency is required to build a piece of infrastructure and uphold its services to a satisfactory level? Searching for a complete answer to this question goes much deeper than simple cost accounting. It turns out to be a scientific endeavor that involves several fundamental, intertwined research issues, including stochastic degradation modeling, time-dependent reliability analysis, lifetime prediction, optimal inspection and maintenance planning, time preference and discounting, and risk-informed decision making. The proposed research program focuses on the development of an advanced probabilistic life-cycle costing system that would address these issues with an emphasis on the modeling of uncertainties involved in each key component of the analysis. The use of the life-cycle cost information goes beyond conventional applications such as alternative comparisons. Rather, it is proposed to play a pivotal role in evaluating innovative project delivery models such as public-private partnerships, developing integrated optimal design and asset management plans, and guiding risk-informed structural integrity management each representing a very different aspect of infrastructure issues at distinguishing phases of infrastructure life. The proposed uncertainty modeling methodology for a full probabilistic quantification - rather than the average or expectation only - of the life-cycle cost, and the way of using the cost information for decision making support are highly original and innovative. The proposed research is expected to have a significant impact on project evaluation, engineering design, and infrastructure asset management. The research program includes a comprehensive highly-qualified personnel training plan of six PhD and three MASc students.

加拿大的民事基础设施一直是我们国家经济的骨干。 原因是系统性的，多面的，从资金赤字和不协调的系统规划到不屈不挠的极端事件以及效率低下的工程设计和管理。 同时，公众对基础设施的期望已从安全，健康和流动性转变为情报，韧性，可持续性和灵活性等概念。 与基础设施相关的决策制定的透明度也是赢得公共支持的重要因素。 为了应对这些挑战，必须建立一个为现代基础设施问题提供整体解决方案的风险信息的生命周期基础设施工程（RILCIE）理论。 申请人的长期研究目标是通过开发可用于支持实际决策的理论，方法和工具来推动Rilcie。 拟议的研究计划与这个长期目标保持一致，旨在回答一个在基础设施生命周期的几乎每个阶段出现的燃烧问题：它成本多少，需要多少偶然性才能建立一项基础设施并维持其服务至令人满意的水平？ 寻找这个问题的完整答案要比简单的成本会计要深得多。 事实证明，这是一项科学的努力，涉及几个基本的，相互交织的研究问题，包括随机退化建模，时间依赖时间的可靠性分析，终身预测，最佳检查和维护计划，时间偏好和折扣以及风险了解的决策​​。 拟议的研究计划着重于开发先进的概率生命周期成本核算系统，该系统将解决这些问题，重点是对分析的每个关键组成部分的不确定性建模。 生命周期成本信息的使用范围超出了常规应用，例如替代性比较。 相反，建议在评估创新的项目交付模型（例如公私伙伴关系，制定综合的最佳设计和资产管理计划）中发挥关键作用，并指导风险知名的结构完整性管理每个代表基础设施问题的非常不同的方面，这些方面在区分基础设施生活的阶段。生命周期成本的完整概率量化（而不是平均预期）的拟议不确定性建模方法，以及使用成本信息进行决策支持的方式是高度原始和创新的。 拟议的研究预计将对项目评估，工程设计和基础设施资产管理产生重大影响。该研究计划包括六个博士学位和三名MASC学生的全面合格的人事培训计划。