Information, uncertainty, and adaptive phenotypic variation

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

My research addresses two fundamental questions in ecology and evolution; what are the causes of phenotypic variation, and what are its consequences? While many theoretical models have been developed to explain complex patterns of phenotypic variation, such models typically assume that individuals are omniscient. In other words, that animals have perfect information about the costs and benefits of exhibiting a given phenotype in a given environment. However, virtually all animal decision-making involves uncertainty. Some uncertainty arises through stochastic processes and is therefore irreducible, while other types of uncertainty can be reduced by investing time and/or energy in sampling relevant environmental cues. The proposed research program will explore the role of uncertainty (both reducible and irreducible) in shaping animal decision-making and patterns of phenotypic variation. This will be done using black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) as the two main model systems. ***Over the next 5 years, I will address the following short-term objectives:******1. How and why do animals value different types of information. We will study how individuals differ in their response to different modalities of information about predation danger (e.g., auditory versus visual cues), and develop and test models that explore the drivers of among-individual differences in the use of personal versus social information. ****** 2. Understanding the consequences of irreducible uncertainty across different temporal scales. We will study responses to uncertainty across different time scales (e.g., moment to moment, within seasons, across years), and evaluate the adaptive value of these responses.****** 3. Adopt an integrative approach to study strategies for managing uncertainty. Do sampling, insurance, and variance-sensitivity, represent expressions of the same latent variable (i.e., response to uncertainty), or are they three independent traits? We will combine results across complementary studies to better understand the underlying structure of responses to uncertainty. ******Significance***This research program will address fundamental questions in ecology and evolution relating to the causes and consequences of phenotypic variation. More specifically, it will begin to address the role that environmental uncertainty plays in shaping complex patterns of phenotypic variation. Further, this research program will provide training opportunities to 31 HQP at the undergraduate, MSc, PhD and PDF levels over the next 5 years. By increasing our understanding of the factors that shape the way that organisms manage uncertainty, including their responses to both reducible and irreducible uncertainty, this research program will provide insights into how animals may be expected to respond to changing environmental conditions.