Mesoscale controls on cumulus convection

积云对流的中尺度控制

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-04095
• 负责人: Kirshbaum, Daniel
• 金额: $ 3.42万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=689525
• 关键词: Mesoscale; controls; cumulus; convection

Cumulus convection is a critical atmospheric process, causing severe weather on the local scale and regulating the atmospheric circulation on the global scale. Despite the fundamental importance of this process, the understanding and prediction of it remain incomplete. As a result, short-term forecasts of severe weather and future climate projections remain highly uncertain, failing to provide reliable guidance to vulnerable sectors of society. The long-term objective of my research program is to improve the quantitative understanding of cumulus convection and apply that knowledge toward improved weather and climate prediction.******This proposal builds on recent progress by my research group in the physical understanding of cumulus convection, in particular the quantification of sub-cloud mesoscale circulations and the strong links between these circulations and cloud-layer convection. In particular, stronger circulations give rise to larger and more vigorous clouds that better overcome the suppressive effects of entrainment (the ingestion of environmental air) and ascend deeper.******My proposed research program provides multiple pathways to build on this understanding and translate it into improved prediction, each conducted by a different graduate student under my supervision. First, a promising theoretical model of sub-cloud mesoscale forcing will be applied to the prediction of such forcing in large-scale models, to improve their representation of convection initiation. Second, a new observational retrieval of cumulus entrainment will be developed and tested using Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Third, climatologies using this retrieval will be conducted to quantify the impacts of sub-cloud forcing and other environmental parameters on entrainment in different climate regimes. Fourth, intensive observations from the 2015 Toronto Pan Am Games will be exploited to quantify the role of lake breezes and other mesoscale processes in controlling cumulus convection around Toronto. Fifth, cloud-resolving ensembles of Canadian convection events will be conducted to understand the multi-scale processes regulating these events and evaluate a potential method for improving short-range convection forecasts.******Through its innovative ideas for the quantification of elusive processes, and for its translation of new insights into improved weather and climate prediction, my research program benefits both Canadian society and the international research community. In particular, its scientific advancements are geared toward mitigating severe-weather risks faced by end-users across Canada and narrowing the currently large uncertainties on future climate projections. The training of multiple research personnel will also contribute to the next generation of Canadian natural scientists tackling problems of regional and worldwide significance.

积云对流是一个关键的大气过程，导致当地尺度上的恶劣天气，并在全球范围内调节大气循环。 尽管这一过程具有根本的重要性，但对其的理解和预测仍然不完整。 结果，对恶劣天气和未来气候预测的短期预测仍然高度不确定，未能为社会脆弱部门提供可靠的指导。 我的研究计划的长期目标是提高对积云对流的定量理解，并将知识应用于改善天气和气候预测。******这项提案是基于我的研究小组在对对流的物理理解中的最新进展中建立的，特别是对这些循环循环和这些循环的牢固联系的量化，这些提案是这些提案的量化。 特别是，更强的循环产生了更大，更剧烈的云，可以更好地克服夹带的抑制作用（摄入环境空气）并更深地上升。首先，亚云中尺度强迫的有希望的理论模型将应用于大规模模型中这种强迫的预测，以改善其对流启动的表示。 其次，将使用观察系统仿真实验（OSSES）开发和测试积云夹带的新观测检索。第三，将使用此检索进行气候，以量化亚云强迫和其他环境参数对不同气候制度中夹带的影响。 第四，将利用2015年多伦多AM运动会的深入观察，以量化微风湖和其他中尺度过程在控制多伦多周围对流中的作用。 将进行第五次，云解决的对流事件的团结，以了解规范这些事件的多规模过程，并评估一种改善短期对流预测的潜在方法。******通过量化难以捉摸的过程的量化创新思想，以对新的洞察力和风险进行研究，可以将其转化为新的洞察力，并能够改善了我的研究，并能够对我进行改善的研究和我的研究，并能够进行我的研究，并能够进行研究。 特别是，它的科学进步旨在减轻加拿大最终用户面临的严重天气风险，并缩小目前对未来气候预测的不确定性。 多个研究人员的培训还将为下一代加拿大自然科学家做出贡献，以解决区域和全球意义的问题。