Fire weather and fuel moisture controls on wildfire activity - present and future.

平均每年有7,000起野火烧毁约250万公顷（约为新斯科舍省的一半）。加拿大消防管理机构花费8亿美元保护社区和经济利益，包括我们的森林。林火管理是森林管理的一个重要方面。目前，加拿大火灾管理机构使用加拿大森林火灾危险等级系统（CFFDRS）来确定荒地火灾危险。CFFDRS系统的一个关键组成部分是火灾天气指数（FWI）系统，该系统每天观测气温、24小时降水量、相对湿度和风速，以得出细燃料、达夫层以及更深处的燃料水分有机材料。燃料湿度是决定火灾是否会点燃和蔓延以及火灾强度的最重要因素。* 我的长期目标是继续探索天气，植被（燃料）和野火之间的关系。在短期内，我建议处理与我的长期目标有关的四个目标。第一个目标将使用机器学习/人工智能来识别和预测加拿大西部的严重火灾天气事件。第二个目标是利用多种全球气候模式和多种气候变化情景，研究到本世纪末燃料湿度的全球变化。特别是，将检查决定点火和主动扩散的关键阈值燃料水分值的偏差。第三个目标是利用红外卫星数据确定夜间是否有发生更高强度火灾的趋势。第四个目标将模拟气候变化改变昼夜温度和相关的相对湿度变化将如何改变燃料水分，以及这将如何影响未来的火灾行为。所有这些研究将有助于加强今天和未来的消防管理，以更好地保护加拿大人及其利益。

On average, 7,000 wildland fires burn about 2.5 million ha (about half the size of Nova Scotia) every year. Canadian fire management agencies spend $800 million protecting communities and economic interests including our forests. Fire management is a major aspect of forest management. Currently, Canadian fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to determine wildland fire danger. A key component of the CFFDRS system is the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System that takes daily observations of air temperature, 24 hour precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed to derive the fuel moisture of fine fuels, the duff layer as well as deeper organic material. Fuel moisture is the most important factor that determines if a fire will ignite and spread and how intense the fire will be. ******My long-term objectives are to continue to explore the relationships between weather, vegetation(fuel) and wildfire. In the short term, I am proposing to address four objectives related to my long-term objective. The first objective will use machine learning/artificial intelligence to identify and forecast severe fire weather episodes over western Canada. The second objective will address global changes in fuel moisture until the end of this century using multiple global climate models and multiple climate change scenarios. In particular, exceedances of key threshold fuel moisture values that determine ignition and active spread will be examined. The third objective will determine if there is a trend towards more high intensity fires during the night using infrared satellite data. The fourth objective will model how climate-change altered diurnal temperature and associated relative humidity changes will modify fuel moisture and how this will affect fire behaviour in the future. All these studies will contribute to enhance fire management today and in the future to better protect Canadians and their interests.********