Uncertainty Assessment in Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

气候变化对水资源影响的不确定性评估

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-06705
• 负责人: Bolisetti, Tirupati
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: University of Windsor
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=711929
• 关键词: Uncertainty; Assessment; Climate; Change; Impacts

The Great Lakes with 20% of the world's fresh water, in addition to meeting the ecological needs, provide municipal, irrigation, industrial and commercial water supplies to about 45 million people, including 11 million on the Canadian side. However, the climate change is projected to affect the water availability and the water quality regimes of the region. Therefore, the assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Great Lakes basin is of paramount socioeconomic importance. The projections obtained from the climate simulation models are used to assess the climate change impacts with the help of hydrological models. The climate and hydrological model outputs are increasingly being used by policy managers, decision makers and regulators. While this is a very important step forward in managing water as an important natural resource, it is equally important to understand the framework behind the model formulation. Mathematical models on climate and hydrology attempt to simulate the water movement above, on and below the earth in an effort to understand the variations in its availability at different locations and at different times. In our efforts to represent the natural system in terms of mathematical models, researchers make some simplified assumptions about the processes. This results in uncertainties due to future development, carbon emission scenarios, climate and hydrological model formulations. There is an urgent need to generate a knowledgebase and develop understanding on the uncertainty in climate change impact assessments in an effort to develop realistic climate change adaptation strategies by administrators and decision makers. The long term objective of this research program is to develop a comprehensive knowledgebase for quantifying and reducing the uncertainties in the climate change impact assessment on water resources and nonpoint source pollutant loading regimes. In the short-term, the objective for the present proposal is to develop a framework and the required innovative computational tools for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on water resources using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and data assimilation methods. The outcomes of the present study will include the climate change impacts on the water resources regime in the Great Lakes basin and the associated uncertainties. These outcomes will be shared with government agencies such as International Joint Commission, Ministries of Environment and Climate Change, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Conservation Authorities. The outreach activities and communication products (publications, presentations, and technical reports) will help the agencies in developing pragmatic water management solutions by considering uncertainties.

拥有世界20%淡水的五大湖，除了满足生态需求外，还为约4500万人提供市政、灌溉、工业和商业用水，其中包括加拿大一侧的1100万人。然而，气候变化预计将影响该区域的水供应和水质状况。因此，评估气候变化对五大湖流域水资源的影响具有极其重要的社会经济意义。 从气候模拟模型中获得的预测在水文模型的帮助下被用来评估气候变化的影响。气候和水文模型的输出越来越多地被政策管理者、决策者和监管者使用。虽然这是将水作为重要自然资源进行管理的非常重要的一步，但了解模型制定背后的框架也同样重要。气候和水文数学模型试图模拟地球上、地表和地下的水运动，以了解不同地点和不同时间水的可用性变化。在我们努力用数学模型来表示自然系统时，研究人员对这些过程做了一些简化的假设。由于未来的发展、碳排放情景、气候和水文模型的制定，这导致了不确定性。 迫切需要建立一个知识库，了解气候变化影响评估中的不确定性，以便管理人员和决策者制定切合实际的气候变化适应战略。 该研究项目的长期目标是建立一个全面的知识库，用于量化和减少气候变化对水资源和非点源污染物负荷制度的影响评估中的不确定性。在短期内，本提案的目标是开发一个框架和所需的创新计算工具，以便利用多目标演变算法和数据同化方法评估气候变化对水资源影响的不确定性。 本研究的结果将包括气候变化对五大湖流域水资源状况的影响以及相关的不确定性。这些成果将与国际联合委员会、环境和气候变化部、农业和自然资源部、保护当局等政府机构分享。外联活动和宣传产品（出版物、介绍和技术报告）将有助于各机构通过考虑不确定因素制定务实的水管理解决方案。