Uncertainty Assessment in Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

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The Great Lakes with 20% of the world's fresh water, in addition to meeting the ecological needs, provide municipal, irrigation, industrial and commercial water supplies to about 45 million people, including 11 million on the Canadian side. However, the climate change is projected to affect the water availability and the water quality regimes of the region. Therefore, the assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Great Lakes basin is of paramount socioeconomic importance. The projections obtained from the climate simulation models are used to assess the climate change impacts with the help of hydrological models. The climate and hydrological model outputs are increasingly being used by policy managers, decision makers and regulators. While this is a very important step forward in managing water as an important natural resource, it is equally important to understand the framework behind the model formulation. Mathematical models on climate and hydrology attempt to simulate the water movement above, on and below the earth in an effort to understand the variations in its availability at different locations and at different times. In our efforts to represent the natural system in terms of mathematical models, researchers make some simplified assumptions about the processes. This results in uncertainties due to future development, carbon emission scenarios, climate and hydrological model formulations. There is an urgent need to generate a knowledgebase and develop understanding on the uncertainty in climate change impact assessments in an effort to develop realistic climate change adaptation strategies by administrators and decision makers. The long term objective of this research program is to develop a comprehensive knowledgebase for quantifying and reducing the uncertainties in the climate change impact assessment on water resources and nonpoint source pollutant loading regimes. In the short-term, the objective for the present proposal is to develop a framework and the required innovative computational tools for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on water resources using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and data assimilation methods. The outcomes of the present study will include the climate change impacts on the water resources regime in the Great Lakes basin and the associated uncertainties. These outcomes will be shared with government agencies such as International Joint Commission, Ministries of Environment and Climate Change, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Conservation Authorities. The outreach activities and communication products (publications, presentations, and technical reports) will help the agencies in developing pragmatic water management solutions by considering uncertainties.