Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts

气候临界点：通过观测和模型以及对相关气候、生态和社会经济影响的评估，对地球系统潜在的不确定性进行量化

• 批准号: 10090795
• 金额: $ 48.14万
• 依托单位: LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS & POL SCI
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10090795
• 关键词: Climate; Tipping; Points; Uncertainty; aware

The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under ongoing anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. In view of the possible irreversibility associated with such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences on climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle demands thorough investigation of the underlying mechanisms, compound or cascading impacts, and associated risks. ClimTip will substantially advance the process understanding of possible Earth system Tipping Elements (TEs). It will provide the methodological framework for characterising and constraining potential TEs from paleoclimate, observational and model data, for identifying unknown tipping potential from observations and models, and for quantifying resilience and changes thereof in climate and ecosystems, including early-warning of forthcoming transitions. Earth system models (ESMs) are the primary tool for projecting the risk of large-scale tipping events and ClimTip will substantially improve their representation of suggested TEs. This will enable the identification of safe operating spaces for a stable Earth system by characterising key Earth system TEs in terms of their critical thresholds and rates, hysteresis and overshoot potential via empirical data and ESMs, taking into account the associated uncertainties. As a unique climate service, ClimTip will provide global high-resolution bias-corrected climate fields for large-scale tipping events based on storylines of tipping in comprehensive ESMs. The associated impacts on climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, society and economy will be assessed globally and put in relation with the Paris Agreement and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030. ClimTip will deliver a comprehensive and precise knowledge basis for tipping-aware risk assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results will be disseminated to the scientific community, general public, and targeted audiences including IPBES and IPCC.

在正在进行的人为强迫下，大规模地球系统倾斜事件的可能性仍然不确定。鉴于与此类事件相关的可能不可逆性以及对气候，生态系统和社会的可能灾难性的全球后果，预防原则要求对潜在机制，化合物或级联影响以及相关风险进行彻底研究。攀登将大大推进对可能地球系统倾斜元件（TE）的过程理解。它将提供方法学框架，以表征和限制古气候，观察性和模型数据的潜在TE，以识别观测和模型中未知的小费潜力，并量化气候和生态系统中的弹性及其变化，包括早期的过渡性。地球系统模型（ESM）是投射大规模小费事件风险的主要工具，攀爬将大大改善其对建议TE的代表。这将通过考虑相关的不确定性，通过经验数据和ESM来表征其临界阈值和速率，滞后和过冲电势，从而使稳定的地球系统的安全工作空间为稳定的地球系统识别。作为一项独特的气候服务，Climtip将根据综合ESM中的倾斜故事情节为大规模的小费活动提供全球高分辨率偏见的气候。对气候，生态系统，生物多样性，农业，社会和经济的相关影响将在全球范围内进行评估，并与《巴黎协定》和《欧盟生物多样性战略》 2030年有关。Climtip将为您提供全面而精确的知识基础，以提供意识到的意识到的风险评估，适应和适应性和缓和策略。结果将被传播给包括IPBE和IPCC在内的科学界，公众和有针对性的受众。