Examining and predicting the adaptive capacity of individuals to cope with environmental change

随着时间的推移，动物已经进化出了对预期的生态和环境变化做出反应和表现最佳的机制。然而，当经历人为变化时，某些物种成功而另一些物种失败，挑战我们准确评估如何，为什么以及何时成功的能力。我正在开发一种强大的预测系统生态学的新方法，该方法认识到快速生态变化（REC）对种群持续性的积极和消极影响取决于物种的适应能力-个人或种群科普和持续变化的能力。我和其他人的工作表明，行为灵活性（根据环境刺激调整行为）是解释物种成功抵抗REC的关键。然而，未知的是，如何确定动物的适应能力是否受到物种生物学或环境设置的更多限制。为了解决这一知识缺口，必须另外考虑个体的潜在生理和/或基因组表型与动物所暴露的生物多重应激源等同。我的研究计划集中在REC下的特定系统中的三个目标：i）行为灵活性在介导个体在原地坚持或转移到更合适的栖息地的能力中的作用; ii）这些行为特征如何与潜在的生理和/或基因表达表型整合，以产生生理适应，异稳态过载或进化适应的潜力;以及iii）在未来多种压力情景下，所产生的综合反应如何影响个人在社区环境中的表现。我使用一个复杂的领域，实验室和建模方法相结合，以耦合行为生态数据与环境压力下的性能，以确定当前和未来的REC下的决策的原因和后果。我适用于我的框架，以三个加拿大系统在危险的分类群特征的差异，在生活史，健身最大化的决定，REC压力，可以限制或解偶适应能力。然而，从战略上讲，它们在概念上是统一的，因为它们面临着一个共同的额外的和不断增加的压力源：热应力。在每个系统中，我将测试动物是否能够更好地跟踪和应对环境中的新变化，是否会表现出积极的表现和适应能力，以及个体内在适应能力的程度是否会受到外部因素的限制或影响，如环境质量，竞争对手和/或捕食者。总之，我的计划旨在通过更容易地识别和增强具有最大潜力的种群来帮助改善保护策略，以适应不断变化的条件。在现代世界中，面对日益增加的环境变化，这种预测能力现在比以往任何时候都更加重要。

Over time, animals have evolved mechanisms to respond and perform optimally to expected ecological and environmental variation. However, when experiencing anthropogenic change certain species succeed while others fail, challenging our ability to accurately assess how, why, and when success will occur. I am developing a robust new approach of predictive systems ecology that recognizes that the positive and negative effects of rapid ecological change (REC) on population persistence depend on the species' adaptive capacity - the ability of the individual or population to cope and persist with change. My work and others' suggest behavioural flexibility (adjusting behaviours to environmental stimuli) is key in explaining variation in the success of species to resist REC. What is unknown however, is ways to identify whether the animal's adaptive capacity is more constrained by the biology of the species or by its environmental setting. To address this knowledge gap, one must additionally consider the individual's underlying physiological and/or genomic phenotype equally with the (a)biotic multiple stressors the animal is exposed to. My research program focuses on three objectives in specific systems under REC: i) the role of behavioural flexibility in mediating an individual's ability to persist in situ or shift to more suitable habitat; ii) how these behavioural traits integrate with underlying physiological and/or gene-expression phenotypes to generate physiological acclimation, allostatic overload, or the potential for evolutionary adaptation; and iii) how the resulting integrated response influences an individual's performance within a community context under various future multiple-stressor scenarios. I use a combination of sophisticated field, lab, and modelling approaches to couple behavioural-ecological data with performance under environmental stressors to determine the causes and consequences of decision-making under current and future REC. I am applying my framework to three Canadian systems in peril across taxa characterized by differences in life-history, fitness-maximizing decisions, and REC stressors that can constrain or uncouple adaptive capacity. Strategically however, they are unified conceptually by facing a common additional and increasing stressor: thermal stress. In each system I will test if animals capable of better tracking and responding to new changes in their environment will display positive performance and fitness, and whether the extent of an individual's inherent capacity to adapt can be constrained or affected by extrinsic factors such as environmental quality, competitors and/or predators. Together, my program is designed to help improve conservation strategies by more readily identifying and enhancing populations that have the highest potential to adapt to changing conditions. In the modern world, I posit this caliber of predictive power in the face of increasing environmental change is now more vital than ever.