Examining and predicting the adaptive capacity of individuals to cope with environmental change

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Over time, animals have evolved mechanisms to respond and perform optimally to expected ecological and environmental variation. However, when experiencing anthropogenic change certain species succeed while others fail, challenging our ability to accurately assess how, why, and when success will occur. I am developing a robust new approach of predictive systems ecology that recognizes that the positive and negative effects of rapid ecological change (REC) on population persistence depend on the species' adaptive capacity - the ability of the individual or population to cope and persist with change. My work and others' suggest behavioural flexibility (adjusting behaviours to environmental stimuli) is key in explaining variation in the success of species to resist REC. What is unknown however, is ways to identify whether the animal's adaptive capacity is more constrained by the biology of the species or by its environmental setting. To address this knowledge gap, one must additionally consider the individual's underlying physiological and/or genomic phenotype equally with the (a)biotic multiple stressors the animal is exposed to. My research program focuses on three objectives in specific systems under REC: i) the role of behavioural flexibility in mediating an individual's ability to persist in situ or shift to more suitable habitat; ii) how these behavioural traits integrate with underlying physiological and/or gene-expression phenotypes to generate physiological acclimation, allostatic overload, or the potential for evolutionary adaptation; and iii) how the resulting integrated response influences an individual's performance within a community context under various future multiple-stressor scenarios. I use a combination of sophisticated field, lab, and modelling approaches to couple behavioural-ecological data with performance under environmental stressors to determine the causes and consequences of decision-making under current and future REC. I am applying my framework to three Canadian systems in peril across taxa characterized by differences in life-history, fitness-maximizing decisions, and REC stressors that can constrain or uncouple adaptive capacity. Strategically however, they are unified conceptually by facing a common additional and increasing stressor: thermal stress. In each system I will test if animals capable of better tracking and responding to new changes in their environment will display positive performance and fitness, and whether the extent of an individual's inherent capacity to adapt can be constrained or affected by extrinsic factors such as environmental quality, competitors and/or predators. Together, my program is designed to help improve conservation strategies by more readily identifying and enhancing populations that have the highest potential to adapt to changing conditions. In the modern world, I posit this caliber of predictive power in the face of increasing environmental change is now more vital than ever.