Predictive accommodation of spatiotemporal variability in distributed photovoltaic generation

为了实现对全人类至关重要的可持续能源目标，我们必须增加光伏(PV)在配电网中的普及率。然而，光伏发电功率随时间g波动。这项工作的本质是通过研究这些受制于不确定变量的TE代理的社区协调来了解跨日内操作范围的预测调节潜力，例如作为交互代理的本地能源管理系统(HEMS)。服务贡献是阴天预报器，用于为PVG Intra Hour预报生成按时间顺序的概率模型。在操作上，这项研究提供了一个分布式智能电网控制系统，具有完全的协议支持，将不同级别的电力系统联系在一起成为一个可互操作的整体。 给研究领域带来的好处是智能电网技术的融合。MLPE方法产生了PVG模型，该模型为建筑集成光伏的住宿研究提供了最大的广度，而具有前瞻性逆变器、存储和负载控制的开源HEMS则有利于能源管理领域。PVG中的概率预测是通过融合能量预测问题而成熟的。在操作上，这项研究加速了智能电网向强大的互动能源互联网的演变。 给加拿大带来的好处超越了能源部门。这项研究将给消费者更多的选择和控制权，同时创造一个在消费者和配电服务运营商之间进行调解的能源服务行业。资产技术的进步将使商品化解决方案能够帮助消除光伏普及率提高的瓶颈。能源预测的进步将在关键的日内时间范围内提供更大的业务确定性，以更低的成本加强能源安全。该计划致力于解决智能电网演进的新兴方法，并将在培训急需的工程师的同时为政策、市场设计和商业模式提供信息。全球智能电网市场预计将以每年20%的速度增长，达到

In order to achieve sustainable energy goals, which are of importance to all humanity, we must increase photovoltaic (PV) penetration into the distribution grid. However, PV power fluctuates with time g. The nature of the work is to understand the predictive accommodation potential across intraday operating horizons by studying the community coordination of these TE agents subject to uncertain variables, like local energy nagement system (HEMS) as a transactive agent. The service contribution is of overcast sky predictors used to generate chronological probability models for PVG intrahour forecasting. Operationally, this research provides a distributed smart grid control system, with full protocol support, that ties the different levels of the electrical system together into one interoperable whole. Benefits to the research field are in smart grid technology convergence. The MLPE approach yields a PVG model that gives the greatest breadth to accommodation studies for building-integrated PV, while an open source HEMS with forward-looking inverter, storage and load control benefits the energy management field. Probability prediction in PVG is matured through the fusion of energy forecasting problems. Operationally, this research accelerates smart grid evolution toward a robust transactive energy internet. Benefits to Canada transcend the energy sector. The research will give prosumers greater choice and control, while creating an energy services industry that mediates between them and distribution service operators. Advances in asset technologies will enable commodity solutions that aid in removing bottlenecks to increased PV penetration. Advances in energy forecasting will provide greater operational certainty over critical intraday time horizons, enhancing energy security at lower cost. This program addresses an emerging approach to smart grid evolution, and will inform policy, market design, and business models while training critically needed engineers. The global smart grid market is expected to grow annually by 20%, reaching USD