Climate change and vulnerability of the sub-arctic ecosystem near Hudson Bay

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Climate change poses a significant conservation challenge to arctic biodiversity. Global warming can disrupt trophic relationships and alter complex species interactions, including changes to habitat, predator-prey relationships, competition, and species distributions. Quantifying the mechanisms affecting change in northern ecosystems is needed to understand how arctic biodiversity may be conserved. Populations may be most sensitive to environmental drivers at the edge of range and my research will improve understanding of the mechanisms of change in northern ecosystems through studies at the leading and trailing edges of species-environmental distributions. To address this need, my research program operates in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, a globally significant wetland overlapping the southern range limit of continuous permafrost and several arctic adapted wildlife. We will use a combination of short-term studies and long-term datasets to test hypotheses regarding drivers of ecosystem change mediated by species-environment interactions. Three focal areas will support our research goals: 1) to test whether climate change affects the availability and quality of wildlife habitat through interacting effects on permafrost; 2) to test the relative importance of climate, predation, and habitat condition to affect intermediate trophic levels in the sub-arctic system, specifically nest-site selection and breeding ecology of shorebirds and waterfowl; and 3) test hypotheses as to whether climate warming and leading-trailing edge dynamics involving competition affect the vulnerability and functional role of arctic fox in the sub-arctic ecosystem. Objective-1 will employ ground measurements and remote sensing technology to characterize changes in habitat caused by interactions among seasonal weather patterns, permafrost dynamics (e.g. active layer depth), wetland hydrology and vegetation structure. Objective-2 will focus on studies of water bird (Canada geese and shorebirds) nest site selection and breeding success in relation to predation, climate and interactions with habitat condition (informed by Objective-1). Objective-3 will focus on the role of the arctic fox as a key indicator species that is both influential and affected by other trophic levels in the ecosystem. My research program will provide a comprehensive assessment of how environmental change impacts arctic species at the edge of their distributions, helping to clarify general mechanisms, anticipate future trends, and inform resource management decisions. My research program includes training for 15 HQP (5 graduate students and 10 undergraduate summer students) and will allow students to gain skills in field studies, advanced technologies (e.g. remote sensing), and theoretical knowledge in arctic ecology. HQP will participate in a team setting involving academia, indigenous communities, and government involving application of science to sustainable resource management.