Terrestrial glacier hazards in a changing climate

气候变化中的陆地冰川危害

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-05025
• 负责人: Flowers, Gwenn
• 金额: $ 4.44万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=717506
• 关键词: Terrestrial; glacier; hazards; changing; climate

Glaciers and ice sheets comprise three-quarters of Earth's fresh water, and harbour over 60 m of potential sea-level rise. In addition to contributing to the chronic hazards of sea-level rise and freshwater scarcity, mountain glaciers present acute hazards by impounding water behind unstable dams, debuttressing steep slopes and volcanic edifices, and rapidly advancing or collapsing during fast-flow events. Toward the long-term goal of understanding how climate-driven glacier change gives rise to glaciological hazards that affect over a billion people worldwide, the short-term objectives of the proposed research are to (1) model the mass balance and runoff from key areas in Canada's Arctic and sub-Arctic, (2) evaluate the environmental controls on glacier stability and complex glaciological hazards and (3) pursue a holistic understanding of glaciohydraulic hazards and a new approach to modelling them. Each objective will be tackled in multiple student projects. Objective 1 builds on over a decade of work at established field sites in southwest Yukon, where the icefields are among the largest current contributors to sea-level rise and glacier retreat has directly impacted local communities. It also extends our nascent modelling efforts in the Arctic to an important new site. Objective 2 springs from recent and startling observations that hint at a spectrum of unstable glacier behaviour, and investigates the direct and indirect controls of climate on glacier- and slope stability envelopes. Objective 3 recognizes the key role of hydraulic processes in nearly all glaciological hazards, and will take models of the glacier drainage system in fundamentally new directions. The proposed research involves theoretical and empirical approaches, with a field program targeting established sites in Canada's North and two new sites in the southern Coast Mountains. The research will be enriched by ongoing and emergent collaborations, as well as support through SFU's Centre for Natural Hazards Research. The anticipated impacts include (1) more precise quantification of glacier mass loss and runoff from two globally important glacierized regions of Canada, (2) deeper understanding of the fundamental drivers of glacier instability and complex hazards in mountain environments, (3) a new approach to understanding and modelling glaciohydraulic hazards and (4) training for 22 people over 5 years, in addition to northern students and community members. The proposed research addresses a wide range of existing and emerging terrestrial glacier hazards, against the complicated backdrop of climate change. These hazards affect indigenous and non-indigenous people in Canada, as well as those living in some of the most densely populated regions of the world. They also touch on Canada's water security, economic development and environmental resilience.

冰川和冰原占地球淡水的四分之三，并且海平面潜在上升幅度超过 60 m。除了造成海平面上升和淡水稀缺的长期危害外，山地冰川还通过在不稳定的水坝后面蓄水、陡峭的斜坡和火山建筑物的首次变形以及在快速流动事件中迅速推进或崩塌而带来严重的危害。为了实现了解气候驱动的冰川变化如何引起影响全球十亿多人的冰川灾害的长期目标，拟议研究的短期目标是（1）模拟加拿大北极和亚北极关键地区的质量平衡和径流，（2）评估对冰川稳定性和复杂冰川灾害的环境控制，（3）全面了解 冰川水力灾害及其建模新方法。每个目标将在多个学生项目中实现。目标 1 建立在育空地区西南部已建立的实地地点十多年的工作基础上，那里的冰原是目前海平面上升的最大贡献者之一，冰川退缩直接影响了当地社区。它还将我们在北极的新生建模工作扩展到了一个重要的新地点。目标 2 源于最近令人震惊的观测结果，这些观测结果暗示了一系列不稳定的冰川行为，并研究了气候对冰川和斜坡稳定性包络线的直接和间接控制。目标 3 认识到水力过程在几乎所有冰川灾害中的关键作用，并将在全新的方向上采用冰川排水系统模型。拟议的研究涉及理论和实证方法，其中一项实地计划针对加拿大北部的已建立地点和南部海岸山脉的两个新地点。正在进行的和新兴的合作以及 SFU 自然灾害研究中心的支持将丰富该研究。预期影响包括 (1) 更精确地量化加拿大两个全球重要冰川地区的冰川质量损失和径流，(2) 更深入地了解冰川不稳定和山区环境中复杂灾害的根本驱动因素，(3) 一种理解和模拟冰川水力灾害的新方法，以及 (4) 除北方学生和社区成员外，在 5 年内为 22 人提供培训。拟议的研究在气候变化的复杂背景下解决了各种现有和新兴的陆地冰川危害。这些危害影响到加拿大的土著和非土著人民，以及生活在世界上一些人口最稠密地区的人们。它们还涉及加拿大的水安全、经济发展和环境恢复力。