Habitat suitability and climate modelling for predicting the risk of new invasive plants in Metro Vancouver

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Climate change is expected to facilitate range expansion of invasive plant species, including northward movement of invasive plants into Canada. More frequent extreme weather events associated with climate change (e.g., floods or storms) will also foster increased spread. The Metro Vancouver area is already vulnerable to invasive plants because of a favourable climate and diverse landscape, and is expected to experience hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters. As a major port of entry into Canada, Metro Vancouver provides numerous pathways for potential invaders. With many of these potential invasive plant species nearby south of the border or likely to reach Metro Vancouver through trade, it is important to prioritize potential invasive plant invaders due to climate change. We propose to develop methodology for modelling habitat suitability under climate change for Metro Vancouver, incorporating unique features of the diverse landscape mosaic of this metropolitan region, and accounting for potential evolutionary changes in the invasive species. Our partnerships include Metro Vancouver both as a funding partner, and as strategic partner for applying study results. Two other partners will also help shape the approach: the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver (ISCMV). The ability of these organizations to both understand the issues and take action make them ideal partners. The BC Provincial government has already developed Provincial-scale risk assessments, which we will build on by examining priority species for Metro Vancouver through the lens of climate change. Shauna Lee-Chai, representing our BC Ministry of Agriculture partner, brings her expertise from previously completing a project predicting new invasive plants for the Province of Alberta under climate change. The research will be carried out by a Master's student co-supervised by David Clements at Trinity Western University and Jennifer Williams at the University of British Columbia. Two undergrad research students will complete the team. This diverse partnership will provide the trainees with both scientific training and mentoring in equity, diversity, and inclusiveness.