Habitat suitability and climate modelling for predicting the risk of new invasive plants in Metro Vancouver

预计气候变化将促进入侵植物物种的范围扩大，包括入侵植物向北迁移到加拿大。与气候变化相关的极端天气事件更加频繁（例如，洪水或风暴）也会促进传播。大都会温哥华地区已经很容易受到入侵植物的影响，因为气候有利，景观多样，预计将经历更热更干燥的夏天和更温暖更潮湿的冬天。作为进入加拿大的主要港口，大温哥华为潜在的入侵者提供了许多途径。由于这些潜在的入侵植物物种中有许多在边境以南附近或可能通过贸易到达大温哥华，因此由于气候变化，优先考虑潜在的入侵植物入侵者是很重要的。我们建议开发的方法来模拟气候变化下的栖息地适宜性为大温哥华，将独特的功能，这个大都市地区的多样性景观马赛克，并占潜在的进化变化的入侵物种。我们的合作伙伴关系包括大温哥华既是一个资金合作伙伴，并作为应用研究成果的战略合作伙伴。另外两个合作伙伴也将帮助制定这一方法：不列颠哥伦比亚省农业部和温哥华大都市入侵物种理事会（ISCMV）。这些组织既了解问题又采取行动的能力使它们成为理想的合作伙伴。卑诗省政府已经制定了全省范围的风险评估，我们将在此基础上通过气候变化的透镜检查大温哥华的优先物种。Shauna Lee-Chai代表我们的BC省农业部合作伙伴，带来了她之前完成的一个项目的专业知识，该项目预测了气候变化下阿尔伯塔省的新入侵植物。这项研究将由一名硕士生进行，由Trinity Western University的大卫克莱门茨和不列颠哥伦比亚省大学的詹妮弗威廉姆斯共同监督。两名本科研究生将完成团队。这种多样化的伙伴关系将为学员提供公平、多样和包容的科学培训和指导。

Climate change is expected to facilitate range expansion of invasive plant species, including northward movement of invasive plants into Canada. More frequent extreme weather events associated with climate change (e.g., floods or storms) will also foster increased spread. The Metro Vancouver area is already vulnerable to invasive plants because of a favourable climate and diverse landscape, and is expected to experience hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters. As a major port of entry into Canada, Metro Vancouver provides numerous pathways for potential invaders. With many of these potential invasive plant species nearby south of the border or likely to reach Metro Vancouver through trade, it is important to prioritize potential invasive plant invaders due to climate change. We propose to develop methodology for modelling habitat suitability under climate change for Metro Vancouver, incorporating unique features of the diverse landscape mosaic of this metropolitan region, and accounting for potential evolutionary changes in the invasive species. Our partnerships include Metro Vancouver both as a funding partner, and as strategic partner for applying study results. Two other partners will also help shape the approach: the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver (ISCMV). The ability of these organizations to both understand the issues and take action make them ideal partners. The BC Provincial government has already developed Provincial-scale risk assessments, which we will build on by examining priority species for Metro Vancouver through the lens of climate change. Shauna Lee-Chai, representing our BC Ministry of Agriculture partner, brings her expertise from previously completing a project predicting new invasive plants for the Province of Alberta under climate change. The research will be carried out by a Master's student co-supervised by David Clements at Trinity Western University and Jennifer Williams at the University of British Columbia. Two undergrad research students will complete the team. This diverse partnership will provide the trainees with both scientific training and mentoring in equity, diversity, and inclusiveness.