Integrating space-use, movement and demographic data to predict the consequences of environmental change on wildlife

气候和土地利用变化是对生物多样性的两大威胁。虽然土地利用变化，即自然土地覆盖向人类活动主导的土地覆盖的转变，是当代生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素，但预计气候变化将在未来几年导致生物多样性下降。量化这些环境变化对野生动物的影响对于保护生物多样性和提高我们对物种如何在人类日益主导的世界中生存的理解至关重要。迄今为止，大多数关于环境变化如何影响野生动物的研究要么集中在人口比率上，比如人口规模，要么集中在行为上，几乎没有整合。集中于人口的研究与保护有直接关系，但除了建议完全停止环境变化外，通常不能转化为旨在减少影响的直接管理行动。相反，对行为的研究提供了关于个体如何对变化作出反应的详细信息，但由于行为反应的存在并不总是表明变化的负面影响这一事实而受到限制。提高我们对环境变化、人口和行为之间的联系的理解，对于制定有效和有针对性的保护战略至关重要。我项目的目标是量化行为和人口统计之间的相互作用，以预测环境变化对物种的影响。为了实现上述目标，我的小组将使用长期的人口统计数据集，空间利用和北极熊、骡鹿和黑熊在环境变化压力下的迁徙数据集。我们将结合来自全球定位系统无线电项圈的动物空间利用和运动数据，繁殖、生存和条件的个体测量，以及种群调查的种群动态，来解决有助于我们更大目标的三个广泛问题：1)动物的空间行为能否用于预测与气候变化相关的种群下降？2)对栖息地改变的行为反应会降低个体的适应性，还是缓冲它们的影响？3)种群密度如何影响动物对环境变化的反应？我的研究计划将通过量化个体和种群之间的联系，对环境变化如何影响物种产生更全面的看法。这项研究将为从事野生动物管理和保护工作的人员提供知识，以便实施更有效的缓解和适应战略，以限制环境变化对野生动物的影响。除了这些对野生动物管理和保护的直接好处外，我还将培训16名HQP（6名研究生和10名本科生暑期生），学习野生动物生态学和评估行为与人口统计学之间相互作用所需的尖端统计技术。

Climate and land-use change are the two greatest threats to biodiversity. Although land-use change, the conversion of natural land-cover to those dominated by human activities, is the primary driver of contemporary biodiversity loss, climate change is expected to cause increasing declines in the coming years. Quantifying the impacts of these environmental changes on wildlife is critical for conserving biodiversity and improving our understanding of how species will exist in an increasingly human-dominated world. To-date, most studies of how environmental change impacts wildlife have either focused on demographic rates, such as population size, or behaviour, with little integration. Studies focused on populations are of direct interest for conservation, but typically cannot be translated into direct management actions aimed at reducing impacts, other than suggesting the cessation of environmental change entirely. Contrastingly, studies of behaviour provide detailed information on how individuals respond to change, but are limited by the fact that the presence of behavioural responses does not always indicate negative effects of change. Improving our understanding of how environmental change, demography and behaviour are linked is critical for developing effective and targeted conservation strategies. The goal of my program is to quantify the interactions between behaviour and demography to predict the consequences of environmental change on species. To meet the above goal, my group will use long term datasets on demography, space-use and movement from populations of polar bears, mule deer and black bears under stress from environmental change. We will combine data on animal space-use and movement from global positioning system radio collars, individual measures of reproduction, survival and condition, and population dynamics from population surveys to address three broad questions that contribute to our larger goal: 1) can the spatial behaviour of animals be used to predict population declines related to climate change? 2) Do behavioural responses to habitat alteration reduce the fitness of individuals, or buffer them from impacts? 3) How does population density influence how animals respond to environmental change? My research program will produce a more holistic view of how environmental change impacts species by quantifying the links between individuals and populations. This research will provide those working in wildlife management and conservation the knowledge to implement more effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to limit the impacts of environmental change on wildlife. Aside from these direct benefits to wildlife management and conservation, I will train 16 HQP (6 graduate students and 10 undergraduate summer students) in wildlife ecology and cutting edge statistical techniques needed to assess the interactions between behaviour and demography.