Integrating space-use, movement and demographic data to predict the consequences of environmental change on wildlife

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Climate and land-use change are the two greatest threats to biodiversity. Although land-use change, the conversion of natural land-cover to those dominated by human activities, is the primary driver of contemporary biodiversity loss, climate change is expected to cause increasing declines in the coming years. Quantifying the impacts of these environmental changes on wildlife is critical for conserving biodiversity and improving our understanding of how species will exist in an increasingly human-dominated world. To-date, most studies of how environmental change impacts wildlife have either focused on demographic rates, such as population size, or behaviour, with little integration. Studies focused on populations are of direct interest for conservation, but typically cannot be translated into direct management actions aimed at reducing impacts, other than suggesting the cessation of environmental change entirely. Contrastingly, studies of behaviour provide detailed information on how individuals respond to change, but are limited by the fact that the presence of behavioural responses does not always indicate negative effects of change. Improving our understanding of how environmental change, demography and behaviour are linked is critical for developing effective and targeted conservation strategies. The goal of my program is to quantify the interactions between behaviour and demography to predict the consequences of environmental change on species. To meet the above goal, my group will use long term datasets on demography, space-use and movement from populations of polar bears, mule deer and black bears under stress from environmental change. We will combine data on animal space-use and movement from global positioning system radio collars, individual measures of reproduction, survival and condition, and population dynamics from population surveys to address three broad questions that contribute to our larger goal: 1) can the spatial behaviour of animals be used to predict population declines related to climate change? 2) Do behavioural responses to habitat alteration reduce the fitness of individuals, or buffer them from impacts? 3) How does population density influence how animals respond to environmental change? My research program will produce a more holistic view of how environmental change impacts species by quantifying the links between individuals and populations. This research will provide those working in wildlife management and conservation the knowledge to implement more effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to limit the impacts of environmental change on wildlife. Aside from these direct benefits to wildlife management and conservation, I will train 16 HQP (6 graduate students and 10 undergraduate summer students) in wildlife ecology and cutting edge statistical techniques needed to assess the interactions between behaviour and demography.