Forests and Global Change

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Climate warming is occurring most rapidly in Canada's North, resulting in the intensification of natural disturbance regimes including both permafrost thaw and wildfire, and driving changes to the structure, composition and function of northern boreal forests. These changes can alter the ecosystem services provided by northern forests making the projection of change critical, given the global relevance of this ecosystem. The proposed program will focus on two aspects of boreal land cover change: permafrost thaw and wildfire, disturbances that are accelerating with climate warming and are by far the most important drivers of change in high latitude ecosystems. The nominee and her team will combine field-based studies, permanent sample plot data, and data synthesis to advance this field and integrate these advances into large-scale forecasting efforts. Combined, this will support an evaluation of rate and trajectory of changes, determination of underlying mechanisms of change and their functional implications, and globally relevant evaluations of the generality of these responses. The proposed research program will advance our understanding of the conditions under which disturbance will drive state change in these forests and use this process understanding to support upscaling and forecasting, thereby supporting decision making in northern communities and governments.