Quantifying and projecting boreal mammal response to landscape change

气候引起的景观变化正在重组生态系统，导致生物多样性下降，让人想起以前的预防措施。随着资源开采扩大到北方地区，人为干扰使情况更加复杂。然而，生物多样性管理、保护和养护并不包括影响多物种持久性的预期未来变化。加拿大野生动物代表着北方人民和全球保护的重要营养、文化和象征来源。这些动物栖息在一个生态系统中，极地放大正在增加干旱，森林火灾和永久冻土融化的频率和严重程度，导致大的栖息地转移。鉴于气候和文化偏好使用非侵入性方法，数据稀缺且难以收集，但对于了解北方生物多样性变化的现实驱动因素至关重要。量化过程，确定北方动物发生，形成预期的变化预测，并将这些预测与未来的观察提供了机会，以测试基本的生态假设，同时服务于关键的应用生态需求。动物生态学的类似研究已经在许多其他生态系统中进行，北方物种生态学的基础工作已经建立。然而，有限的生态位冗余北方系统与当代快速和可观察到的景观变化，提供了一个重要的机会，以测试我们的理解不断变化的生物多样性驱动因素的预测生态学方法。我的长期研究目标是预测动物的反应空间明确预期的人为和自然景观变化的综合框架内的生态预测。这将通过衡量当前和预期未来生境和人口条件之间的权衡的定量能力，为当前的管理和保护决策提供信息。这一目标将通过两个短期目标来实现：O1量化动物分布和人口变化的驱动因素，O2证明这些关系在用于预测人口变化时的局限性和适当应用。目标将实现四个计划，量化I的保护区及其周围景观的哺乳动物保护的功效，II的密度和分布的北方数据有限的物种，III预期的哺乳动物资源利用的自然和人为景观变化的转变，同时提供预测IV野生动物栖息地的使用和人口考虑到这方面的知识。 这项研究将建立进步和洞察力的潜力，动物访问，使用和响应资源的景观变化。它将通过量化和预测关键管理战略的影响来促进应用生态学的进步，以帮助短期和长期的省，地区，土著和联邦社会经济和保护承诺。

Climate-induced landscape change is restructuring ecosystems resulting in biodiversity declines reminiscent of previous extinctions. This is compounded by anthropogenic disturbance as resource extractions expand into northern regions. Yet biodiversity management, protection, and conservation does not include anticipated future change affecting multi-species persistence. Canadian wildlife represent important nutritional, cultural, and symbolic sources for northern people and global conservation. These animals inhabit an ecosystem where polar amplification is increasing the frequency and severity of drought, forest fires, and permafrost thaw resulting in large habitat shifts. Data is scarce and hard to collect given the climate, and cultural preference to use non-invasive methods, yet important to understand real-world drivers to northern biodiversity change. Quantifying processes that determine where northern animals occur, forming predictions of anticipated changes, and comparing these predictions to future observations provides the opportunity to test fundamental ecological hypotheses while servicing critical applied ecological needs. Similar work on animal ecology has been conducted in many other ecosystems, with foundational work on northern species ecology already established. However, limited niche redundancy within northern systems paired with contemporary rapid and observable landscape change provides an important opportunity to test our understanding of changing biodiversity drivers in a predictive ecology approach. My long-term research goal is to predict animal response to spatially-explicit anticipated anthropogenic and natural landscape changes within an integrated framework of ecological forecasting. This will inform current management and conservation decisions through a quantitative ability to weigh trade-offs between current and anticipated future habitat - and population - conditions. This goal will be obtained through two short-term objectives: O1 quantifying drivers of animal distribution and demographic change, and O2 demonstrating limitations and appropriate applications of these relationships when used to predict population change. Objectives will be achieved by four Plans that quantify I the efficacy of protected areas and their surrounding landscapes for mammal conservation, II density and distribution of a northern data-limited species, III anticipated shifts of mammal resource use to natural and anthropogenic landscape change, while providing projections of IV wildlife habitat use and demography considering this knowledge. This research will establish advancements and insights into the potential for animals to access, use, and respond to resources as landscapes change. It will contribute to advances in applied ecology by quantifying and predicting the effects of key management strategies to aid short and long-term provincial, territorial, Indigenous, and federal socio-economic and conservation commitments.