TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS: UNCERTAINTY, BEHAVIOR, AND TIME-DEPENDENCY

由于对人类和环境的潜在威胁和损害，通常大量运输或储存的危险物质（有害物质）总是与很大程度的风险相关。2013年的lac - msamgatic列车脱轨事件和2020年的贝鲁特爆炸事件进一步引起了世界对与危险有关的作业安全的关注。为了更好地了解现有的网络，并提出适应性解决方案，以促进危险品运输和紧急响应决策，将研究三个主题：不确定性、行为和时间依赖性。主题1：在不确定环境下管理危险品运输。不确定性在现实世界中普遍存在。在交通运输中，需求、设施流程、行驶时间和事故概率都是随机的。在危险品运输规划的任何阶段忽视不确定性都可能导致风险和损失的增加。另一种特殊类型的不确定性，由不可预见的事件（例如，恶劣的天气、劳工行为、施工、供应的缺乏或短缺等）引起的中断，也可能显著地影响系统性能。本研究将这些不确定属性嵌入到危险品运输管理中，建立一个稳健而灵活的系统，能够有效地适应不断变化的环境，从而限制相应的负面后果。主题2：将路径选择行为纳入危险品网络设计问题。大多数决策过程都假设决策者是理性和合作的。但这种假设可能并不总是正确的，尤其是在处理不完整的信息或强烈的个人偏好时。由于承运人的行为导致的航线选择可能会引发意想不到的风险激增，因此需要适当控制。本课题将尝试通过将路线选择行为融入寻求最佳网络设计的决策过程，将行为科学与危险品运输联系起来。建议的方法可以帮助当局根据承运人的实际行为，通过实施主动和被动的政策来规范道路的使用，从而实现最低的环境影响。主题3：时变危险品网络的网络设计与路径规划。现实世界的数据表明，交通网络参数（如交通流量、旅行速度、人口密度等）随着一天中的时间和工作日/周末而变化。在大量可用数据的驱动下，本研究主题将研究时间依赖性对运输决策的影响，并试图通过时间依赖性政策（例如，基于时间的宵禁和/或通行费），时间依赖性网络设计（例如，链路和节点管理）和时间依赖性操作（例如，路由和调度）来减轻系统风险。还将综合考虑救援设施、消防部门和医疗单位的后勤因素，以提供全面的决策支持。

Often transported or stored in large volumes, hazardous materials (hazmats) are always associated with substantial levels of risks, due to the potential threats and damage to people and the environment. The Lac-Mégantic train derailment (2013) and the Beirut explosion (2020) further drew the world's attention to the safety of hazmat-related operations. Aiming to gain a better understanding of the existing networks and to propose adaptive solutions to facilitate hazmat transportation and urgent response decisions, three themes will be studied: Uncertainty, Behavior, and Time-dependency. Theme 1: Managing Hazmat Transportation in an Uncertain Environment. Uncertainties prevail in the real world. In transportation, the demands, facility processes, travel times, and incident probabilities are all stochastic in nature. Overlooking uncertainties at any stage of hazmat transportation planning may lead to progressed risk and loss. Another special type of uncertainty, disruptions caused by unforeseen events (e.g., inclement weather, labor actions, construction, lack or shortage of supplies, etc.), may also significantly impact the system performance. This study will embed these uncertain attributes into managing hazmat transportation, to establish a robust yet flexible system that can efficiently adapt to the changing environment, so to limit corresponding negative consequences. Theme 2: Incorporating Route Choice Behavior into Hazmat Network Design Problems. Most decision-making processes assume rational and cooperative decision makers. But this assumption may not always be true, especially when dealing with incomplete information or strong personal preferences. The route choices resulting from carriers' behaviors may provoke unexpected risk surges and hence need to be properly controlled. This theme will make tentative steps to link behavioral science to hazmat transportation by integrating route choice behaviors into the decision process of seeking the best network design. The proposed approaches can assist the authorities in achieving the lowest environmental impacts through imposing proactive and reactive policies to regulate the use of roads in light of carriers' realistic behaviors. Theme 3: Network Design and Route Planning in Time-Dependent Hazmat Networks. Real-world data suggest that transportation network parameters (e.g., traffic flow, travel speed, population density, etc.) vary with both time of day and weekday/weekend. Driven by the substantial data available, this research theme will examine the impact of time-dependency on shipping decisions, and attempt to mitigate the system risks through time-dependent policies (e.g., time-based curfew and/or toll), time-dependent network design (e.g., link and node management) and time-dependent operations (e.g., routing and scheduling). The logistics considerations of rescue facilities, fire departments, and medical units will also be integrated for comprehensive decision support.