TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS: UNCERTAINTY, BEHAVIOR, AND TIME-DEPENDENCY

危险材料的运输：不确定性、行为和时间依赖性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03514
• 负责人: Ke, Ginger
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=746416
• 关键词: TRANSPORTATION; HAZARDOUS; MATERIALS; UNCERTAINTY; BEHAVIOR

Often transported or stored in large volumes, hazardous materials (hazmats) are always associated with substantial levels of risks, due to the potential threats and damage to people and the environment. The Lac-Mégantic train derailment (2013) and the Beirut explosion (2020) further drew the world's attention to the safety of hazmat-related operations. Aiming to gain a better understanding of the existing networks and to propose adaptive solutions to facilitate hazmat transportation and urgent response decisions, three themes will be studied: Uncertainty, Behavior, and Time-dependency. Theme 1: Managing Hazmat Transportation in an Uncertain Environment. Uncertainties prevail in the real world. In transportation, the demands, facility processes, travel times, and incident probabilities are all stochastic in nature. Overlooking uncertainties at any stage of hazmat transportation planning may lead to progressed risk and loss. Another special type of uncertainty, disruptions caused by unforeseen events (e.g., inclement weather, labor actions, construction, lack or shortage of supplies, etc.), may also significantly impact the system performance. This study will embed these uncertain attributes into managing hazmat transportation, to establish a robust yet flexible system that can efficiently adapt to the changing environment, so to limit corresponding negative consequences. Theme 2: Incorporating Route Choice Behavior into Hazmat Network Design Problems. Most decision-making processes assume rational and cooperative decision makers. But this assumption may not always be true, especially when dealing with incomplete information or strong personal preferences. The route choices resulting from carriers' behaviors may provoke unexpected risk surges and hence need to be properly controlled. This theme will make tentative steps to link behavioral science to hazmat transportation by integrating route choice behaviors into the decision process of seeking the best network design. The proposed approaches can assist the authorities in achieving the lowest environmental impacts through imposing proactive and reactive policies to regulate the use of roads in light of carriers' realistic behaviors. Theme 3: Network Design and Route Planning in Time-Dependent Hazmat Networks. Real-world data suggest that transportation network parameters (e.g., traffic flow, travel speed, population density, etc.) vary with both time of day and weekday/weekend. Driven by the substantial data available, this research theme will examine the impact of time-dependency on shipping decisions, and attempt to mitigate the system risks through time-dependent policies (e.g., time-based curfew and/or toll), time-dependent network design (e.g., link and node management) and time-dependent operations (e.g., routing and scheduling). The logistics considerations of rescue facilities, fire departments, and medical units will also be integrated for comprehensive decision support.

由于对人和环境的潜在威胁和破坏，危险材料(危险品)往往大量运输或储存，总是伴随着相当大的风险水平。Lac-Mégantic火车脱轨事件(2013年)和贝鲁特爆炸事件(2020年)进一步提请全世界注意与危险物质有关的作业的安全性。为了更好地了解现有的网络，并提出自适应的解决方案，以促进危险物质的运输和紧急反应决策，将研究三个主题：不确定性、行为和时间依赖性。主题1：在不确定的环境中管理危险物品运输。在现实世界中，不确定性占了上风。在交通运输中，需求、设施流程、行程时间和事故概率本质上都是随机的。忽视危险品运输规划的任何阶段的不确定性都可能导致风险和损失的增加。另一种特殊类型的不确定性，即由不可预见的事件(如恶劣天气、劳工行动、建筑、缺乏或短缺供应等)造成的中断，也可能对系统性能产生重大影响。本研究将这些不确定属性嵌入到危险品运输管理中，建立一个稳健而灵活的系统，能够有效地适应不断变化的环境，从而限制相应的负面后果。主题2：将路径选择行为纳入危险网络设计问题。大多数决策过程都假定决策者是理性的和合作的。但这一假设可能并不总是正确的，特别是在处理不完整信息或强烈的个人偏好时。航空公司行为导致的航线选择可能会引发意想不到的风险激增，因此需要适当控制。本课题将通过将路径选择行为融入到寻求最佳网络设计的决策过程中，尝试将行为科学与危险物品运输联系起来。拟议的方法可以根据运营商的实际行为，通过实施主动和反应的政策来规范道路的使用，从而帮助当局实现最低的环境影响。主题3：依赖时间的危险网络中的网络设计和路径规划。现实世界的数据表明，交通网络参数(例如，交通流量、旅行速度、人口密度等)随着一天的时间和工作日/周末的不同而不同。在现有大量数据的推动下，本研究主题将研究时间依赖对运输决策的影响，并试图通过依赖时间的策略(例如，基于时间的宵禁和/或收费)、依赖时间的网络设计(例如，链路和节点管理)和依赖时间的操作(例如，路线和调度)来缓解系统风险。还将整合救援设施、消防部门和医疗单位的后勤考虑，以提供全面的决策支持。