Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Management of Engineering Systems

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In the last 70 years, the nuclear sector has played a vital role in meeting Canada's energy needs, driving economic growth, and enhancing the quality of life. Nuclear energy is again poised to play a prominent role in tackling two emerging challenges, climate change and energy security, by decarbonizing the economy and ensuring an abundant supply of reliable and affordable energy. To achieve these goals, Canada is refurbishing its nuclear power plants for their long-term operation well beyond the initial licensing period, and intensifying the development of smaller, simpler, and cheaper nuclear reactors, known as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), that will easily integrate with the clean energy network. To ensure the safe and efficient operation of aging reactors and modern SMRs, the development of innovative risk assessment and life cycle management models is proposed in partnership with NSERC and the Canadian nuclear industry represented by the University Network of Excellence in Nuclear Engineering (UNENE).The proposed research will investigate the adverse effects of aging of plant systems over 60-80 years of operation, assess emerging risks, and generate the technical basis to evaluate the fitness for service of plant systems. The scientific core of this research is based on probability theory, data analytics, and statistical decision analysis methods that are applied to model uncertain and non-stationary aging processes. These probabilistic models will predict reliability and risk, enhance inspection and maintenance, improve generation efficiency, and optimize investments over the life cycle of the plant. The development of integrated risk assessment models for SMRs and the advancement of inspection technologies are the two other major innovative aspects of this research. In addition to providing the industry with practical tools for managing nuclear assets, this research will create a pool of highly skilled engineers and researchers to meet the industry's demands for a competent workforce in critical areas of technology. In summary, the proposed research will advance Canada's ability to continue developing and utilizing nuclear power in a safe and responsible manner.