Social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics assessment for urban resilience to extreme weather events

极端天气事件是人们经历气候变化的最直接方式。城市地区由于其位置、人口集中以及日益复杂和相互依赖的基础设施，特别容易受到此类事件的影响。多利安和卡特里娜飓风、超级风暴桑迪、反复发生的渥太华河洪水和其他灾害的影响不仅表明了已建基础设施的失败，而且还突出了机构、资源和知识系统的不足，这些系统也是城市基础设施系统的组成部分，无法准备和应对这种规模的事件。为了推进已建立的理论文献并指导基础设施发展决策，促进城市弹性，现在需要一种基于证据的方法来揭示城市基础设施系统的社会，生态和技术系统（SETS）动态。这项工作的长期目标是推进对抗灾基础设施设计和开发的理论和理解，并改善未来城市应对极端天气事件的决策。为了提供实现长期目标的基本要素，本工作的短期目标是：1）开发一个包含SETS相互作用的城市系统动力学建模框架; 2）确定SETS动力学如何有助于城市对极端天气事件的恢复力; 3）应用耦合基础设施系统模型来评估相互依赖的SETS对城市洪水的脆弱性; 4）促进关于SETS复原能力的知识共同生产，并支持基础设施发展的决策，提高城市复原力。拟议的工作将是跨学科工程分析的前沿，解决受极端天气事件影响的城市系统和基础设施的复杂性。这项工作将有助于推进综合城市系统动力学模型、相互依存的基础设施对城市洪水的脆弱性评估以及加拿大城市的城市复原力和气候适应规划的参与性决策框架。这项工作的成果将可用于支持区域管理机构重新评估当前的气候适应规划和基础设施发展目标，以减轻未来的气候风险影响，并提高SETS应对极端天气事件的能力。

Extreme weather events are the most immediate way that people are experiencing climate change. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to such events, given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructures. Impacts of Hurricane Dorian and Katrina, Superstorm Sandy, repetitive Ottawa River Floods, and other disasters demonstrate not just failures in built infrastructure, but also they highlight the inadequacy of institutions, resources, and knowledge systems, also components of urban infrastructure systems, to prepare for and respond to events of this magnitude. To advance established theoretical literature and guide infrastructure development decisions promoting urban resilience, an evidence-based approach is now needed to reveal the social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics of infrastructure systems in cities. The long-term objective of this work is to advance the theory and understanding of resilient infrastructure design and development and to improve decision-making for future urban resilience to extreme weather events. To provide the foundational elements for achieving the long-term objective, the short-term objectives of this work are: 1) to develop an urban system dynamics modeling framework encompassing SETS interactions; 2) to identify how SETS dynamics contribute to urban resilience to extreme weather events; 3) to apply a coupled infrastructure systems model to evaluate interdependent SETS vulnerabilities to urban flooding; and 4) to facilitate knowledge co-production on SETS resilience capabilities and support decision-making for infrastructure development improving urban resilience. The proposed work will be the frontier of interdisciplinary engineering analysis addressing the complexity of urban systems and infrastructure affected by extreme weather events. This work will contribute to the advancement of the integrative urban system dynamics model, interdependent infrastructure vulnerability assessment to urban flooding, and the participatory decision-making framework for urban resilience and climate adaptation planning in the context of Canadian cities. The outcome of this work will be actionable to support regional governing agencies to re-evaluate current climate adaptation planning and infrastructure development goals in terms of mitigating future climate risk impacts and improving SETS capacities to extreme weather events.