Social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics assessment for urban resilience to extreme weather events

极端天气事件是人们经历气候变化的最直接方式。考虑到城市的地理位置、人口的集中以及日益复杂和相互依存的基础设施，城市地区尤其容易受到此类事件的影响。飓风“多里安”和“卡特里娜”、超级风暴“桑迪”、渥太华河洪水和其他灾害的影响，不仅表明了建筑基础设施的失败，还突显了机构、资源和知识体系（也是城市基础设施系统的组成部分）在准备和应对这种规模的事件方面的不足。为了推进已有的理论文献并指导基础设施发展决策，促进城市韧性，现在需要一种基于证据的方法来揭示城市基础设施系统的社会、生态和技术系统（SETS）动态。这项工作的长期目标是推进弹性基础设施设计和开发的理论和理解，并改善未来城市应对极端天气事件的决策。为了提供实现长期目标的基本要素，本工作的短期目标是：1)开发包含set相互作用的城市系统动力学建模框架；2)确定set动态如何有助于城市抵御极端天气事件；3)应用耦合基础设施系统模型评估城市洪涝灾害下相互依赖的set脆弱性；4)促进关于set韧性能力的知识联合生产，支持基础设施发展决策，提高城市韧性。提议的工作将成为跨学科工程分析的前沿，解决受极端天气事件影响的城市系统和基础设施的复杂性。这项工作将有助于推进加拿大城市综合系统动力学模型、城市洪水的相互依赖基础设施脆弱性评估，以及城市复原力和气候适应规划的参与式决策框架。这项工作的成果将具有可操作性，以支持区域管理机构重新评估当前的气候适应规划和基础设施发展目标，以减轻未来气候风险的影响，提高set应对极端天气事件的能力。

Extreme weather events are the most immediate way that people are experiencing climate change. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to such events, given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructures. Impacts of Hurricane Dorian and Katrina, Superstorm Sandy, repetitive Ottawa River Floods, and other disasters demonstrate not just failures in built infrastructure, but also they highlight the inadequacy of institutions, resources, and knowledge systems, also components of urban infrastructure systems, to prepare for and respond to events of this magnitude. To advance established theoretical literature and guide infrastructure development decisions promoting urban resilience, an evidence-based approach is now needed to reveal the social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics of infrastructure systems in cities. The long-term objective of this work is to advance the theory and understanding of resilient infrastructure design and development and to improve decision-making for future urban resilience to extreme weather events. To provide the foundational elements for achieving the long-term objective, the short-term objectives of this work are: 1) to develop an urban system dynamics modeling framework encompassing SETS interactions; 2) to identify how SETS dynamics contribute to urban resilience to extreme weather events; 3) to apply a coupled infrastructure systems model to evaluate interdependent SETS vulnerabilities to urban flooding; and 4) to facilitate knowledge co-production on SETS resilience capabilities and support decision-making for infrastructure development improving urban resilience. The proposed work will be the frontier of interdisciplinary engineering analysis addressing the complexity of urban systems and infrastructure affected by extreme weather events. This work will contribute to the advancement of the integrative urban system dynamics model, interdependent infrastructure vulnerability assessment to urban flooding, and the participatory decision-making framework for urban resilience and climate adaptation planning in the context of Canadian cities. The outcome of this work will be actionable to support regional governing agencies to re-evaluate current climate adaptation planning and infrastructure development goals in terms of mitigating future climate risk impacts and improving SETS capacities to extreme weather events.