Landslide risk evolution and the adequacy of risk evaluation criteria
滑坡风险演化和风险评估标准的充分性
基本信息
- 批准号:RGPIN-2020-04392
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 2.26万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:加拿大
- 项目类别:Discovery Grants Program - Individual
- 财政年份:2022
- 资助国家:加拿大
- 起止时间:2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Landslides in Canada are responsible for an average of four fatalities each year and cause ~$200 million of damage annually. Landslide management depends on government resources, and risk levels are evaluated through Factor of Safety, Probability of Failure, risk rankings or quantitative risk assessments. These risk levels can vary with time, and if their variability is not adequately understood and quantified, the likelihood of slope failures and their negative consequences can increase. Risk variability is attributed to the level of knowledge about the landslide, progressive degradation of materials, and external factors (particularly weather); however, limited studies address the fundamental processes behind risk variability with time. My previous work focused on the development of frameworks for quantifying landslide risk considering uncertainty for a variety of parameters. These frameworks were developed under the current state of knowledge regarding risk variability and were practical in nature. The proposed work will now advance the fundamental study of landslide risk variation with time, particularly in light of climate change, and assess the adequacy of landslide risk acceptability criteria. To the best of my knowledge, this research will generate new knowledge in the physics of landslide evolution, which will inform the development of practical approaches toward landslide risk management. The first objective is to understand the fundamental processes in landslide risk variation for two sites with different types of landslides: a compound landslide and a slope prone to rock falls. This work will develop a framework for estimating risk variations with changes in landslide deformation patterns and external factors, particularly in the context of climate change, and develop numerical realizations of the compound landslide to adapt the landslide risk analysis process to estimate seasonal and long-term risk variability. The second objective is to quantify the impact of model uncertainty when analyzing a cut-slope within a reservoir and to assess the adequacy of evaluation criteria at different stages of the life of a cut-slope (design, construction, operation, long-term). This work will monitor the slope through remote sensing coupled with in-situ instrumentation to faciliatate the development of an approach to evaluate uncertainty reduction and develop a numerical approach to estimate changes in slope behaviour in the long term to assess the most adequate slope risk criteria at different stages of the life of a cut-slope. The research program will train two PhD students and a Research Associate and will advance the fundamental understanding of seasonal and long-term changes in landslide risk, particularly associated with climate change. This will provide the basis for addressing current and future changes in landslide risk to assure continuous and sustainable economic development in terms of public and environmental safety.
加拿大的山体滑坡平均每年造成4人死亡,每年造成约2亿美元的损失。滑坡管理依赖于政府资源,风险等级通过安全系数、故障概率、风险等级或定量风险评估进行评估。这些风险水平可能会随时间而变化,如果没有充分了解和量化其可变性,则边坡破坏及其负面后果的可能性可能会增加。风险可变性归因于对滑坡、材料逐步退化和外部因素(特别是天气)的了解程度;然而,有限的研究涉及风险随时间变化的基本过程。我以前的工作重点是开发考虑各种参数的不确定性的量化滑坡风险的框架。这些框架是根据目前对风险可变性的了解情况制定的,具有实用性。拟议的工作现在将推进滑坡风险随时间变化的基础研究,特别是在气候变化的情况下,并评估滑坡风险可接受性标准的适当性。据我所知,这项研究将产生新的知识,在滑坡演化的物理学,这将告知滑坡风险管理的实用方法的发展。第一个目标是了解两个不同类型滑坡的滑坡风险变化的基本过程:一个复合滑坡和一个倾向于罗克瀑布的斜坡。这项工作将制定一个框架,用于估计随着滑坡变形模式和外部因素的变化而产生的风险变化,特别是在气候变化的背景下,并开发复合滑坡的数字实现,以调整滑坡风险分析过程,估计季节性和长期风险可变性。第二个目标是量化模型的不确定性的影响时,分析在水库内的切坡,并评估适当的评价标准在不同阶段的生命切坡(设计,施工,运营,长期)。这项工作将通过遥感和现场仪器监测斜坡,以促进发展一种方法来评估减少不确定性,并发展一种数值方法来估计斜坡行为的长期变化,以评估在削坡生命的不同阶段最适当的斜坡风险标准。该研究计划将培养两名博士生和一名研究助理,并将推进对滑坡风险的季节性和长期变化的基本理解,特别是与气候变化相关的变化。这将为应对滑坡风险的当前和未来变化提供基础,以确保在公共和环境安全方面实现持续和可持续的经济发展。
项目成果
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MacciottaPulisci, Renato其他文献
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{{ truncateString('MacciottaPulisci, Renato', 18)}}的其他基金
Landslide risk evolution and the adequacy of risk evaluation criteria
滑坡风险演化和风险评估标准的充分性
- 批准号:
RGPIN-2020-04392 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 2.26万 - 项目类别:
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Implementation of New Monitoring Approaches for Geohazard-Risk Management in Canada
加拿大地质灾害风险管理新监测方法的实施
- 批准号:
543429-2019 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 2.26万 - 项目类别:
Collaborative Research and Development Grants
Landslide risk evolution and the adequacy of risk evaluation criteria
滑坡风险演化和风险评估标准的充分性
- 批准号:
RGPIN-2020-04392 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 2.26万 - 项目类别:
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Landslide risk evolution and the adequacy of risk evaluation criteria
滑坡风险演化和风险评估标准的充分性
- 批准号:
DGECR-2020-00384 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 2.26万 - 项目类别:
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