Statistical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Environmental Systems

传染病和环境系统的统计模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-04701
• 负责人: Deeth, Lorna
• 金额: $ 1.17万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758946
• 关键词: Statistical; Modelling; Infectious; Disease; Environmental

Modelling the spread of infectious diseases is important for maintaining human, animal, and plant health, as well as maintaining economic security and international trade. Understanding what factors affect the spread of a disease, or which individuals are more likely to become infected is critical in preventing and controlling a disease outbreak.A class of statistical models, known as “individual-level models”, describe the spread of an infectious disease through a population by considering information for each individual within that population. These individuals could be individual people, plants, houses, or farms, each with their own unique set of information (such as geographical location, whether they have been vaccinated, etc.). Individual-level models use this very specific, individual-level information to describe how an infectious disease may spread across both space and time. The advantage these models is that they are very flexible, and allow for a population in which individuals are heterogeneous (e.g. not all the same). However, these models are limited in that they require a large amount of computational time, which may be unacceptable in the event of a disease outbreak when it is necessary to quickly understand how a disease.The research program described here aims to develop ways in which this computational burden can be reduced, while still accurately identifying factors which may influence the spread of the disease. Furthermore, this research program intends to develop a subgroup of individual-level models that can incorporate missing or potentially inaccurate individual-level data, a phenomenon that often arises in public health and other such data.Another objective of this research program is related to environmental effects monitoring initiatives (i.e., the joint federal and provincial government oil sands monitoring program in Alberta). Like the idea of surveillance for a disease outbreak, to determine whether human activity is having an environmental impact on wild populations (i.e., fish), it is necessary to identify when there are significant changes in these populations (i.e., size, weight, tumour incidence, reproductive success, etc.). The surveillance techniques for monitoring environmental effects need to be able to adapt to natural changes in the environment, as well as distinguish observed effects that are due to industrial/human influence and are not within the natural variation that is always present within an ecosystem. This proposed research program aims to develop statistical models for monitoring environmental effects that can identify significant population changes, while incorporating information about the surrounding environment and human activities that may be related to these changes. This information is pivotal in detecting impacts caused by industrial activities, and assessing the extent of any such impacts.

对传染病的传播进行建模对于维护人类、动物和植物的健康以及维护经济安全和国际贸易都很重要。了解哪些因素影响疾病的传播，或哪些人更有可能被感染，这对预防和控制疾病爆发至关重要。一类统计模型，称为“个体水平模型”，通过考虑人群中每个人的信息来描述传染病在人群中的传播。这些人可以是个人、植物、房屋或农场，每个人都有自己独特的信息集(如地理位置、是否接种过疫苗等)。个人层面的模型使用这种非常具体的个人层面的信息来描述传染病如何跨越空间和时间传播。这些模型的优点是它们非常灵活，并允许在群体中个体是不同的(例如，并不都是相同的)。然而，这些模型的局限性在于它们需要大量的计算时间，这在疾病爆发的情况下可能是不可接受的，因为需要快速了解疾病是如何发生的。这里描述的研究计划旨在开发可以减轻计算负担的方法，同时仍然准确地识别可能影响疾病传播的因素。此外，这项研究计划打算开发一个个体水平模型的子组，可以纳入缺失或潜在不准确的个人水平数据，这是公共卫生和其他此类数据中经常出现的现象。该研究计划的另一个目标与环境影响监测倡议有关(即，艾伯塔省联邦和省政府联合油砂监测计划)。与监测疾病暴发的想法一样，为了确定人类活动是否对野生种群(即鱼类)产生环境影响，有必要确定这些种群何时发生重大变化(即大小、体重、肿瘤发病率、繁殖成功等)。监测环境影响的监测技术需要能够适应环境中的自然变化，并区分由于工业/人类影响而观察到的影响，以及不在生态系统内始终存在的自然变化范围内的影响。这项拟议的研究计划旨在开发监测环境影响的统计模型，以确定重大的人口变化，同时纳入可能与这些变化相关的周围环境和人类活动的信息。这些信息对于检测工业活动造成的影响和评估任何此类影响的程度至关重要。