Modelling ecological dynamics in changing environments: novel theories, policy suggestions and operational tools for mitigating the impact of anthropogenic disturbances.

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Anthropogenic disturbances caused by human activities are reshaping our ecosystems and causing adaptation challenges to the inhabitants, new disease emergence, harmful algal blooms and emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In the face of the inherent complexity and uncertainty driven by these anthropogenic disturbances, Canadian policy makers need to rely on state-of-the-art modelling techniques to inform policies in a timely manner. However, current models need to be updated and new models designed that can adequately capture the complexity and uncertainty caused by anthropogenic disturbances. The long-term vision of my research program is to bridge the gap between mathematical research and real data/issues resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. Using new mathematical techniques, such as stoichiometric modelling, I aim to produce effective, practical and reliable models that mitigate adverse effects resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. To this end, my short-term objectives will investigate, design and analyze new mathematical, artificial intelligence and statistical models and frameworks to predict, manage and forecast: 1) how the interacting impacts of fishing and climate velocity affect the abundance and distribution of marine fish; 2) the volume of GHG emitted from a given volume of tailings and the factors impacting GHG emissions; 3) the impacts of environmental parameters on phytoplankton bloom or on the vertical distribution of phytoplankton; and 4) how we can boost future epidemic/pandemic preparedness to benefit our health outcomes and augment our resilience in emergency situations. Our novel approach uses a combination of nonlinear ordinary, partial and difference equations models, statistical models, artificial intelligence models, a hybrid of highly interconnected nonlinear partial and ordinary differential equations (DEs), local and global stability analysis, bifurcation analysis, theory of monotone dynamical systems, persistence theory, sensitivity analysis and computational methods. A key aspect of the program is the validation of our methods in collaboration with field biologists and epidemiologists. The transformational outcomes will include novel mathematical theories, policies and operational tools which will be instrumental in assisting Canada to mitigate adverse effects resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. This work will contribute to the national and international dialogue on implementation of Ecosystem-based Management. The proposed research will also convene a new community of scholars around challenging sustainability science and health problems, and train five undergraduates, five graduates, and one post¬doctoral researcher. They will develop technical and professional skills to become sound researchers, academic influencers, and leaders in the field. In addition, educational and stakeholder¬-specific activities will be developed to maximize the reach of the results.