Modelling ecological dynamics in changing environments: novel theories, policy suggestions and operational tools for mitigating the impact of anthropogenic disturbances.

模拟不断变化的环境中的生态动态：减轻人为干扰影响的新颖理论、政策建议和操作工具。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-04559
• 负责人: Kong, Jude
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: York University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=759021
• 关键词: Modelling; ecological; dynamics; changing; environments

Anthropogenic disturbances caused by human activities are reshaping our ecosystems and causing adaptation challenges to the inhabitants, new disease emergence, harmful algal blooms and emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In the face of the inherent complexity and uncertainty driven by these anthropogenic disturbances, Canadian policy makers need to rely on state-of-the-art modelling techniques to inform policies in a timely manner. However, current models need to be updated and new models designed that can adequately capture the complexity and uncertainty caused by anthropogenic disturbances. The long-term vision of my research program is to bridge the gap between mathematical research and real data/issues resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. Using new mathematical techniques, such as stoichiometric modelling, I aim to produce effective, practical and reliable models that mitigate adverse effects resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. To this end, my short-term objectives will investigate, design and analyze new mathematical, artificial intelligence and statistical models and frameworks to predict, manage and forecast: 1) how the interacting impacts of fishing and climate velocity affect the abundance and distribution of marine fish; 2) the volume of GHG emitted from a given volume of tailings and the factors impacting GHG emissions; 3) the impacts of environmental parameters on phytoplankton bloom or on the vertical distribution of phytoplankton; and 4) how we can boost future epidemic/pandemic preparedness to benefit our health outcomes and augment our resilience in emergency situations. Our novel approach uses a combination of nonlinear ordinary, partial and difference equations models, statistical models, artificial intelligence models, a hybrid of highly interconnected nonlinear partial and ordinary differential equations (DEs), local and global stability analysis, bifurcation analysis, theory of monotone dynamical systems, persistence theory, sensitivity analysis and computational methods. A key aspect of the program is the validation of our methods in collaboration with field biologists and epidemiologists. The transformational outcomes will include novel mathematical theories, policies and operational tools which will be instrumental in assisting Canada to mitigate adverse effects resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. This work will contribute to the national and international dialogue on implementation of Ecosystem-based Management. The proposed research will also convene a new community of scholars around challenging sustainability science and health problems, and train five undergraduates, five graduates, and one post¬doctoral researcher. They will develop technical and professional skills to become sound researchers, academic influencers, and leaders in the field. In addition, educational and stakeholder¬-specific activities will be developed to maximize the reach of the results.

人类活动造成的人为干扰正在重塑我们的生态系统，给居民带来适应挑战，出现新的疾病，有害藻类大量繁殖和温室气体排放。面对这些人为干扰所带来的内在复杂性和不确定性，加拿大决策者需要依靠最先进的建模技术，及时为政策提供信息。然而，需要更新现有的模型，并设计新的模型，以充分反映人为干扰造成的复杂性和不确定性。 我的研究计划的长期愿景是弥合数学研究和人为干扰造成的真实的数据/问题之间的差距。使用新的数学技术，如化学计量模型，我的目标是产生有效的，实用的和可靠的模型，减轻人为干扰造成的不利影响。为此，我的短期目标将调查，设计和分析新的数学，人工智能和统计模型和框架，以预测，管理和预测：1）捕鱼和气候速度的相互影响如何影响海洋鱼类的丰度和分布; 2）给定量的尾矿排放的温室气体量以及影响温室气体排放的因素; 3）环境参数对浮游植物水华或浮游植物垂直分布的影响;以及4）我们如何能够加强未来的流行病/大流行病防备，以有利于我们的健康成果，并增强我们在紧急情况下的复原力。我们的新方法使用的非线性常，偏和差分方程模型，统计模型，人工智能模型，高度互连的非线性偏和常微分方程（DE），局部和全局稳定性分析，分叉分析，单调动力系统理论，持久性理论，灵敏度分析和计算方法的混合。该计划的一个关键方面是与现场生物学家和流行病学家合作验证我们的方法。转型成果将包括新的数学理论、政策和操作工具，这些将有助于帮助加拿大减轻人为干扰造成的不利影响。这项工作将促进关于实施基于生态系统的管理的国家和国际对话。拟议的研究还将召集一个新的学者社区，围绕具有挑战性的可持续发展科学和健康问题，并培训五名本科生，五名研究生和一名博士后研究员。他们将发展技术和专业技能，成为健全的研究人员，学术影响者和该领域的领导者。此外，还将开展教育活动和针对利益攸关方的活动，以最大限度地扩大成果的覆盖面。