Biodiversity and Landscape Modeling

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Knowing how many species are in nature or a given landscape and understanding how they are assembled in ecosystems are arguably among the most important questions in ecology. This knowledge is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and informs critical decisions about biodiversity conservation and management. Although numerous methods have been proposed to tally and estimate the number of species in landscapes, there is little consensus about their performance. Also, current data about real world diversity change suggests that we have much to learn about mechanisms that maintain or drive changes in biodiversity. I will address these knowledge gaps through innovative research in the context of a CRC renewal. Building on my existing strengths and ongoing work in this field, I aim to develop methods and theory to improve for estimation of species diversity, to synthesize diversity patterns, and to test hypotheses about primary biodiversity mechanisms. Specifically, I will address four interrelated research components critical to understanding biodiversity patterns and how they develop and are maintained. These are as follows: (1) Develop a `Calculus of Biodiversity' for measuring and synthesizing biodiversity patterns; (2) Test ecological processes that maintain species assemblages, with special interest in testing the role of plant-soil feedback on plant species diversity; (3) Predict impact of climate and land use change on biodiversity; and (4) Apply cutting-edge results to support sustainable management of ecosystems and to inform innovative land use policies in Canada and other countries. This research, involving theoretical development, conceptual synthesis, empirical data analysis and field experiments, will be based on two primary networks of long-term forest inventory plots: the global ForestGEO network and the network of long-term national forest inventory plots maintained in Canada, the USA and Europe. This research will contribute new knowledge about mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance and will provide evidence to interpret global biodiversity change in forests across several spatial scales. The deliverable concepts, models, methods and syntheses developed will enhance our ability to understand and predict the impact of changes in climate and land-use on forest dynamics and ecological function to guide for better conservation and management of biodiversity in Canada and elsewhere.