尾矿坝失稳会产生泥石流，对区域工农业生产和人民生命财产安全造成严重损失，危害巨大，致灾机理复杂，基础研究薄弱。本项目针对尾矿坝失稳的震源特征及灾变孕育机理，拟通过理论分析、室内试验、数值仿真、现场试验、微震监测等手段开展研究。首先利用主动震源位置已知、震源能量大的优势，协同被动震源构建潜在危险区域定位的数学模型，在此基础上，求解震源波形与事件的物理力学参数，对被动震源的典型物理力学特征开展系统研究；其次探索坝体位移、浸润线等宏观参数与震源特征参数之间的内在关系，借助数值仿真及室内相似试验再现不同震源尺度下的坝体动态响应特性，揭示多因素致灾机理，分析震源的时、空、强演化规律，探索坝体失稳的动力学特征；最后揭示坝体的失稳前兆特征，阐明坝体系统的灾害孕育机理。本研究可为突破尾矿坝溃坝预警难题、完善尾矿坝监测技术、提高灾害防治措施的有效性提供理论依据。

The instability of the tailings dam results in debris flow, which will cause serious losses to the regional industrial and agricultural production, as well as lead to huge economic losses and casualties. However, fundamental research is insufficient for the complex mechanism of disaster formation. This project focuses on the hypocenter characteristics and hazard-pregnant mechanism for the tailings dam instability, which will be comprehensively investigated by the theoretical analyses, laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, field tests, and microseismic monitoring. Firstly, a mathematical model for locating potentially hazardous area will be established by coupling the passive sources and the advantages of active sources, which are determined coordinates and large source energy. Then, based on the above results, the physical and mechanical parameters of the source waveform and events will be solved. Additionally, the research for the typical physical and mechanical characteristics of passive sources will be performed systematically. Secondly, the intrinsic relationships between the macroscopic parameters, which includes the tailings dam displacement and phreatic line, and the seismic source characteristic parameters will be explored. Subsequently, the numerical simulation and laboratory similar simulation experiments will be implemented to reproduce dynamic response characteristics of tailings dam under different scales of seismic sources, which are expected to reveal the causing mechanism of the disaster induced by multi-factors, analyze the temporal, spatial and intensity evolution rules of seismic sources, as well as investigate the dynamic characteristics of tailings dam instability. Finally, the precursory characteristics of tailings dam instability will be revealed and the disaster-pregnant mechanism of the tailings dam system will be clarified. In conclusion, this project will provide a theoretical basis for breaking through the complicated pre-alarm issue of tailings dam instability, developing the monitoring technology of the tailings dam, and improving the effectiveness of disaster prevention measures.