欧亚大陆冬季气温年代际变化归因及其驱动机制研究

批准号:
41975082
项目类别:
面上项目
资助金额:
63.0 万元
负责人:
孙诚
依托单位:
学科分类:
气候与气候系统
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2019
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
孙诚
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中文摘要
欧亚大陆冬季热力状况对东亚冬季风有深远影响,其年代际变化尤其是近几十年显著变冷趋势对全球气候年代际异常有重要贡献,是国际气候学研究的前沿和热点。由于中高纬天气噪声的干扰以及一般统计分析方法在厘清现象间因果关系的局限性,欧亚大陆慢变气候信号提取和归因始终是气候学研究的难点,制约了人们对于大陆年代际气候变化的认识。近年来,非平稳时间序列的慢特征分析和定量因果关系分析等新方法逐渐受到气象学界的关注和认可,而将这些方法综合应用于年代际气候变化归因的研究尚不多见。鉴于此,本项目将综合应用这些方法,利用长期的观测、模式资料,通过动力诊断,结合理论分析及数值模拟,研究欧亚大陆冬季气温的时空变率并提取年代际慢变强迫信号,寻找与慢变信号相对应的大气系统外强迫因子,分析并厘清大气外强迫与陆地气温年代际响应间的因果联系,揭示大气外强迫影响欧亚大陆冬季气候的动力学机制及主要物理过程,最终建立相应的物理概念模型。
英文摘要
The winter thermal conditions in Eurasia have a profound impact on the East Asian winter monsoon. Its interdecadal variations, especially the significant cooling trend in recent decades, have made important contributions to the interdecadal change of global mean surface temperature, and are the frontiers and hot topics of international climate research community. Due to the disturbance of weather noise in mid-high latitudes and the limitation of general statistical analysis methods in clarifying the causal relationship between phenomena, the extraction and attribution of slowly-varying climate signals in Eurasia has always been a research difficulty, which restricts people's understanding of the Eurasian inter-decadal climate change and variability. In recent years, new methods such as slow feature analysis and quantitative causality analysis of non-stationary time series have got more and more attentions and recognitions from the meteorological community, but the research on the application of these methods to the attribution of interdecadal climate change is rare. In view of this, the project will comprehensively apply these methods, using long-term observations, model data, dynamic diagnosis, theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, to study the temporal and spatial variability of winter temperatures in Eurasia and extract interdecadal slowly-varying forcing signals. The atmospheric external forcing factors corresponding to the slowly varying signals will be analyzed and the causal link between the external forcing and the interdecadal response of Eurasian surface temperature will be clarified. The project will also reveal the dynamical mechanisms and main physical processes of the atmospheric external forcing affecting the winter climate of Eurasia, and finally establish a corresponding physically-based conceptual model.
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专利列表
DOI:10.3389/feart.2020.580457
发表时间:2020-10
期刊:
影响因子:--
作者:Yusen Liu;Zhanqiu Gong;Cheng Sun;Jianping Li;Lin Wang
通讯作者:Yusen Liu;Zhanqiu Gong;Cheng Sun;Jianping Li;Lin Wang
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reconstructions and instrumentally observed multidecadal climate variability: A comparison of indicators
大西洋经向翻转环流重建和仪器观测的数十年气候变率:指标比较
DOI:10.1002/joc.6695
发表时间:2020-07
期刊:International Journal of Climatology
影响因子:--
作者:Sun Cheng;Zhang Jing;Li Xiang;Shi Chunming;Gong Zhanqiu;Ding Ruiqiang;Xie Fei;Lou Panxing
通讯作者:Lou Panxing
DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2106.20213
发表时间:2022
期刊:大气科学
影响因子:--
作者:朱丽飞;孙诚;李建平;张静;刘雨森;宫湛秋
通讯作者:宫湛秋
DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1
发表时间:2023-12-13
期刊:NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
影响因子:16.6
作者:Liu, Yusen;Sun, Cheng;Li, Jianping;Kucharski, Fred;Di Lorenzo, Emanuele;Abid, Muhammad Adnan;Li, Xichen
通讯作者:Li, Xichen
DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103645
发表时间:2021-12
期刊:Global and Planetary Change
影响因子:3.9
作者:Cheng Sun;Lifei Zhu;Yusen Liu;Z. Hao;Jing Zhang
通讯作者:Cheng Sun;Lifei Zhu;Yusen Liu;Z. Hao;Jing Zhang
北大西洋年代际海温型交替转换对东亚夏季降水的影响和可预测性研究
- 批准号:42375025
- 项目类别:面上项目
- 资助金额:50万元
- 批准年份:2023
- 负责人:孙诚
- 依托单位:
北大西洋两种年代际海温模态对平流层环流和温度的影响及机理研究
- 批准号:41775038
- 项目类别:面上项目
- 资助金额:68.0万元
- 批准年份:2017
- 负责人:孙诚
- 依托单位:
球面二维傅里叶级数在热带外平-对流层行星波时空变率研究中的应用
- 批准号:41305046
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
- 资助金额:25.0万元
- 批准年份:2013
- 负责人:孙诚
- 依托单位:
国内基金
海外基金
