Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice.
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice.
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年代际振荡提供了熟练的南极海冰多年预测。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1
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发表时间：
2023-12-13
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Li, Xichen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yusen;Sun, Cheng;Li, Jianping;Kucharski, Fred;Di Lorenzo, Emanuele;Abid, Muhammad Adnan;Li, Xichen
在卫星时代，南极海冰总体上呈现出长期增加的趋势，与全球变暖导致的北极海冰减少相反。然而，2014-2018年南极海冰的急剧下降引发了对其年际和十年尺度变化的质疑，而这些变化却知之甚少。在这里，我们确定了南极海冰年代际振荡，表现出8-16年的准周期，这是与太平洋准年代际振荡（r =-0.90）。通过结合观测，耦合模式相互比较项目的历史模拟，和起搏器气候模式实验，我们发现的证据表明，海冰年代际振荡和太平洋准年代际振荡之间的同步性与大气极向传播的Rossby波列加热在热带太平洋中部激发。这些波浪削弱了阿蒙森海低压，由于短波辐射和暖平流的增强，海冰融化。基于太平洋准年代际振荡的回归模型表明，这种热带-极地遥相关具有多年的可预测性。一个十年尺度的振荡模式被确定为南极海冰变化的主导模式。这种模式主要是由热带-极地联系驱动的，为南极海冰的多年可预测性提供了见解。
Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability. A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
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