基于性能退化影响因素区域聚类的光伏组件现场可靠性评估预测理论及其应用研究

光伏组件的现场可靠性是光伏发电项目投资、设计和运维决策的重要依据。针对目前研究存在的不足，项目将创新性地开展基于性能退化影响因素区域聚类的光伏组件现场可靠性评估预测理论及其应用的研究。首先，从工作负荷和自然耗损两个维度对性能退化影响因素进行分析，构建基于性能退化影响因素的区域聚类与分析模型，开发并应用混合模糊聚类算法获得现场可靠性最具一致性的区域聚类结果。其次，应用ED过程描述光伏组件的总体和具有随机效应个体的性能退化过程，构建现场可靠性评估模型及其极大似然估计和区间估计方法，估计已知性能退化数据区域光伏组件的现场可靠度或使用寿命。三是，基于区域聚类结果和现场可靠性评估结果，研究确定现场可靠性评估结果的适用地理区域，构建位于同类区域和非同类区域光伏组件现场可靠性的预测模型。项目成果不仅将丰富现有可靠性评估预测的理论和方法，对风力发电、户外监控和交通控制等系统的类似研究也具有很好的借鉴价值。

The field reliability of photovoltaic (PV) module is one of the important inputs for decision-making on the investment, design, operation and maintenance of PV power generation systems. In view of the shortcomings of current research, the project will introduce an innovative method on the field reliability evaluation and prediction theory, along with its application of PV module based on regional clustering of performance degradation factors. Firstly, the impact factors are analyzed from two aspects: workload and natural wear. The regional clustering and analysis model is then constructed accordingly. Through developing and applying the fuzzy hybrid clustering algorithm, the geographical regions where the reliability of distributed PV modules has the least difference or the highest consistency is obtained. Secondly, the ED process is implemented to describe the performance degradation process of the PV modules both in general group and individual ones with random effects. The field reliability evaluation model with maximum likelihood and interval evaluation is designed to estimate the field reliability of PV modules with known performance degradation data. Thirdly, based on the results of regional clustering and field reliability evaluation, the practical geographical scope is studied. The models, predicting the field reliability of PV modules located in the same or different clustering region, are composed respectively. The project results will not only enrich the current theory and method of reliability assessment and prediction, but may also advise similar research on wind power generation, outdoor monitoring and traffic control systems.