项目研究内容包括空调产品售后故障数据分析、同型各代空调可靠性增长模型和基于可靠性的保修期优化设计三部分。在空调所处自然环境因素和使用习惯因素一致性研究的基础上，对其所处地理区域进行科学精细的分类，以保证据此分类后的各类故障数据所反映的可靠性影响因素及其影响程度的一致性。在应用故障判据和时间浓缩概念对售后故障数据进行处理后，将其应用于同型各代各批次空调可靠性的定量估计，进而应用AMSAA模型构建同型各代空调全寿命周期的可靠性增长模型，并应用该模型预测下一代空调的可靠性增长趋势。将下一代空调的可靠性预测值应用于构建综合考虑预期的可靠性增长趋势、保修成本和保修效益等多个影响因素的保修期优化设计模型，设计出充分挖掘了持续质量改进而导致的可靠性增长效益的同型下一代空调的最优保修期。研究成果对推动空调可靠性工作具有理论和实际指导意义，也对冰箱、洗衣机和热水器等产品的同类研究具有很好的借鉴价值。

The research contents mainly focus on three parts related to air conditioner: failure data analysis from service, modeling for product realiability growth among different generations and optimized warranty design based on realibilty analysis. Based on the consistency of natural environment and operating behavior factors, the geography element where air conditioner locates is classified rationally, in order to guarantee the consistency of various reliability factors and influencing levels within the same geography area. By applying with failure identification criteria and condensed operating time period on processing failure data from service, it has been extended to quantitative estimation on the reliabilty of products within the same type but from different generations.Furthermore, AMSAA model is applied to construct the reliability growth model in full life cycle,and the reliabilty growth trend for products of the next generation thus can be assessed. The estimated value for the reliability of next generation product is applied to establish the integrated warraty period optimization design, by considering and utilizing the reliabilty growth trend, warranty cost, warraty benefit and other factors. The research result indicates the significance on both related academic interests and industrial field, and it is also of guidance value for other electrical products such as refrigerators, washing machine and so on.