产业集聚纾解融资约束及推动转型升级的机制与政策研究

Financial constraints are the main obstacle to China's economic transformation and upgrading. This project intends to systematically identify, assess and demonstrate that industrial clustering can relax financial constraints and consequently facilitate transformation and upgrading, which serves as evidence and suggestions to policy-making. Firstly, grounded on field investigations, literature reviews and cross-country data analyses, stylized facts and general rules among industrial clustering, financial constraints and transformation and upgrading will be summarized. Secondly, with firm-level micro data and empirical models, a system of measurements of key variables will be proposed, the effect of industrial clustering on financial constraints and transformation and upgrading will be respectively tested, and the internal mechanisms, especially the intermediate effect of financial constraints will be identified, which helps to clarify the ambiguous understanding in the current empirical literature. Thirdly, a uniform framework that includes industrial organization, financial development and unbalanced growth will be creatively established, which breaks the limitation of current theoretical models that cannot simultaneously cover these three areas and fill the gap between empirical and theoretical studies. Fourthly, with estimation and calibration, simulation and counter-factual analyses, the effectiveness of industrial and financial policies will be scientifically and quantitatively evaluated, and policy recommendations will be proposed under the theoretical framework. This research not only provides theoretical reasoning and decision-making references of relaxing financial constraints and facilitating transformation and upgrading, but also offers new methods, frameworks and discoveries for relevant economic and management theories.

融资约束是制约中国经济转型升级的重要障碍。本项目旨在系统识别、评估和说明产业集聚能够通过纾解融资约束的渠道推动转型升级，为政策制定提供依据和建议。首先，在实地调研、文献梳理和跨国数据分析的基础上，提炼产业集聚、融资约束和转型升级之间的典型事实和一般规律。其次，运用微观企业大数据和计量模型，提出一套关键变量的度量指标，分别检验产业集聚对融资约束和转型升级的影响，识别其内在机制、尤其是融资约束的中介作用，以厘清现有实证研究的模糊认识。第三，创新性地构建包容产业组织、金融发展和非平衡增长的统一框架，突破现有理论模型不能同时涵盖三者的局限，弥合理论与实证研究的鸿沟。第四，通过估计校准系统参数、数值模拟和反事实分析，科学定量评估产业与金融政策的绩效，并在理论框架的指导下提出政策建议。研究成果不仅能为纾解融资约束、加快推进转型升级提供理论思路和决策参考，也将为经济管理相关理论提供新的方法、范式和结论。

本项目系统识别、评估和说明了产业集聚能够通过纾解融资约束的渠道推动转型升级。首先，通过文献综述和实地调研，本项目掌握了各地区产业结构的演变历史，提炼了结构转型的一般规律，验证了“库兹涅茨事实”并揭示了其在地区间的差异性，基于我国现实背景，考察了工业扶持政策、人口年龄结构和需求结构冲击对产业结构转型一般规律的影响机制与效果。其次，基于案例分析和实证研究，本项目构造了衡量产业集聚和企业融资约束程度的指标体系，归纳了产业集聚缓解融资约束的典型事实并运用实证模型验证了其绩效，通过拓展金融层级理论刻画了其作用机制并采取实证策略加以识别。第三，基于企业层面调研数据，本项目衡量了企业转型升级的特征事实，通过理论模型和实证策略检验了产业集聚推动产业转型升级的效果，利用路径分析识别并定量估算了其中缓解融资约束这一中介渠道所扮演的作用。第四，根据实证研究结果，本项目拓展了非平衡增长理论这一研究结构转型问题的经典模型，通过融合产业组织和金融发展理论刻画了产业集聚对产业结构的作用规律和影响机制，在此基础上引入产业和人口政策改革等背景元素，形成了统一的结构转型分析框架。最后，基于理论模型的计算结果，本项目对中央和地方政府的产业和金融政策进行了定量评估，对产业结构转型在我国经济中长期增长表现中的影响进行了定性加定量分析，对未来的政策制定提出了相关建议。本项目取得的一系列研究成果不仅能为纾解融资约束、加快推进转型升级提供理论思路和决策参考，也将为经济管理相关理论提供新的方法、范式和结论。

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