针对当前城市空间管控失效的种种现实问题，及重大事件、政策变化、自然灾害等不确定性因素，研究新常态语境下基于存量规划的城市开发边界动态调控理论体系与实现途径。据此，本课题基于对城市发展阶段、空间蔓延机制与特征的分析，针对“是否需要调控，以及在何处、以何种方式调控”三个管控难题，采用生态优先兼顾发展诉求的价值导向，确立刚性控制与弹性引导共轭协同的核心目标，采用CA模型、InVEST模型及静态博弈模型组成的技术工具包嵌入DPSIR框架的技术方法，提出以生态保护优先权分级确定潜在土地供给区域的思想，建构了以底线思维的刚性控制、弹性思维的韧度调控和多目标协同的情景博弈为主要内容的理论体系，从技术创新、政策响应和制度协同等方面进行实现路径的求解，并选择长三角区域大中城市进行实证研究。本课题将为我国城市开发边界动态调控理论与实践提供强有力的技术支撑，在实践经验方面具示范作用和借鉴意义。

With the reality problems of urban space control lapses and uncertain factors such as major events, policy changes and natural disasters, study on dynamic adjustment theory system and implementation method of UGB needs to be conducted based on inventory planning in the context of the New Normal. Primarily, three core issues of "whether it needs to be adjusted or not? where to adjust it? and how to adjust it? " are presented after analyzing the urban development stages, spatial spreading mechanisms and characteristics. Establishing value orientation of ecological priority and core objective of conjugate coordination with rigid control and the flexible guidance, a technical toolkit consisting of CA model, InVEST model and static game model is adopted to embed the technical method of DPSIR-UDB framework. Corresponding with the proposal that the potential land supply is determined by ecological priority classification, theory system is constructed mainly with the rigid control of bottom line thinking, the resilient adjustment of flexibility thinking and the scenario gaming of multi-objective coordination, and implementation method is excavated from the perspectives of technology innovation, policy responses and system coordination with large and medium-sized cities in the Yangtze River selected to conduct empirical researches. To sum up, a strong technical support will be provided for the theory and practice of UGB dynamic adjustment in China, and a demonstration effect and reference significance will be presented for practical experience in this study.