外商直接投资与经济增长质量：基于演化视角的数量分析

FDI对东道国经济增长质量的作用近年来受到广泛关注。传统数量观点认为，FDI是资本、技术和管理经验的载体，能够通过多种方式促进经济增长。但“外资依赖症”却充分反映了FDI推动下粗放式增长的脆弱性。因此，从增长质量角度考察FDI作用更具实际意义。本课题借鉴演化经济学框架对该问题进行研究，共四部分：首先，构建FDI作用下行业增长质量的非对称演化模型，以明确FDI的作用机制；其次，选取大陆东部11个省市22个工业行业为样本，使用PCA方法测度增长质量。再次，检验FDI对增长质量的整体影响及其内在机制。最后，就FDI对增长质量行业结构演化的作用进行经验分析，并从行业特征角度检验差异性作用的原因。本课题的学术贡献在于对FDI如何影响东道国增长质量进行了系统回答，其中对于质量行业结构演化的分析突破了新古典框架，能够丰富扩展相关文献；现实意义在于有助于解读高速度低质量的增长困境，为政策制定提供经验依据。

The effect of Foreign Direct Investment on host economic growth quality is attracting more attention of related research. Traditional quantitative literatures recognize FDI as the composite of capital, technology and management experience, which could subsequently boost the host economic growth. However, prevail phenomenon of “dependence on foreign capital” explores its risk. To evaluate the real effect of FDI on host economy, inspecting from the perspective of economic growth quality seems more reasonable. This project is based on evolutionary approach, including four main parts as follow. Firstly, we construct a theoretical model to explore the mechanism of FDI affecting host economic growth quality. Secondly, basing on principal component analysis, we will measure the economic growth quality of 22 industries in eastern provinces. Thirdly, we will examine the possible effect of FDI on host growth quality, as well as the channels through which FDI reacts on. Fourthly and finally, we will estimate FDI’s impact on industrial structure change of growth quality, and try to explore the reasons of industrial differences in FDI’s effects from the perspective of industrial characteristics. The principal contribution of this research is to provide systematic exploration on FDI’s effect on host economy from the perspective of quality both theoretically and empirically. Especially, the analysis of industrial change could expend related literature by establishing an evolutionary framework. For practical purpose, it’s helpful in understanding growth predicament with high speed and low quality, and providing references for regulatory authorities.