本课题综合运用地学、技术经济学、环境系统分析等相关学科理论和方法，从生产选址、技术选择等微观角度入手，研究工业布局和技术进步对水资源利用 -能源消耗-污染物排放复杂系统（WEEMI）的微观影响机理、关键单元/节点、影响传递和放大途径与宏观效应；在此基础上，利用复杂系统建模方法，在地市/区县/工业集聚区等空间尺度耦合工业单元、技术单元，构建自底向上的工业WEEMI复杂系统模拟模型，系统识别WEEMI系统中“工业变化—资源环境响应”从微观到宏观的关键机理与特征规律，定量分析和评估京津冀城市群产业转移、结构调整、技术升级等战略驱动下WEEMI系统结构、规模和空间格局的演变趋势及潜在的重大资源环境影响。本研究成果将从机理上科学认识、定量刻画WEEMI复杂巨系统耦合关系及演变规律，为京津冀城市群协同控制产业发展的资源环境影响提供研究支撑，促进京津冀城市群在水能关键约束条件下实现环境质量改善。

This study aims to explore the Nexus of Water, Energy and Emission (WEEMI) within Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. First, the study will analyze the effect of industrial spatial distribution and technology innovation on WEEMI (including micro mechanism, key unit or node, transmission mechanism, amplification pathway and macro pathway, etc) from micro perspectives, using the theories and methods of environmental science, geoscience, technical economics and other related disciplines comprehensively. Second, this study will apply theories and methods of complex system analysis to develop a comprehensive bottom-up computational system for regional WEEMI simulation, integrating technology units and industry units based on a land plot scale, which will be capable of systemly simulating the whole process of ‘state of industrial spatial distribution and technology innovation - response on water, energy and emission’. Subsequently, the integrated model will be operationalized using the historical data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Lastly, typical urban growth scenarios under different strategies related to productivity distribution, structural adjustment and technology innovation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration will be constructed and responsive changes in regional WEEMI will be assessed quantitatively. This study will provide valuable insights to the complex relations and evolution tendencies of WEEMI from a scientific perspective and support coordinated control of WEEMI. This study is therefore believed to facilitate a rational decision-making process of cooperation development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration considering key resources and environmental constraints.