非理性集体从众行为对加大非常规突发事件扩展和恶化有着关键影响，但对于消除非常规突发事件下非理性“羊群现象”负面效应的动态应急决策尚不完善。非理性“羊群现象”是当事主体受来自群体情绪、心理、行为方面压力的影响而导致的从众行为，本研究据此提出基于情景-分析-应对的思想，对引发非理性从众行为并导致其蔓延的群体压力下各类要素的表征、耦合方式、诱变机制进行分析，构建非理性“羊群现象”成因要素体系；在此基础上，阐释非理性“羊群现象”情景间的系统动力学关系，设计自适应演变算法，构建动态情景下的自适应情景推演模型，把握非理性“羊群现象”的情景演变规律；依据情景的演变，研究临机决策心理认知过程的逻辑推理模型与计算模型，确立关键决策点，制定决策规则，探索为“羊群现象”非理性从众行为提供适时适景临机决策的方法；结合实验计算和实证研究，对研究理论和内容给予验证，为提高非常规突发事件应急管理质量提供理论基础和思路。

Irrational conformity behavior has a crucial influence on increasing extension and deterioration of unconventional emergencies, but the dynamic emergency decision for irrational "herd phenomenon" negative effects elimination of unconventional emergencies is not perfect. Irrational "herd phenomenon" is the result of conformity behavior which is affected by group pressure came from groups irrational emotion, psychology and behavior, on the basis of scenario-analysis thought, this study proposes by analyzing and summarizing characterizations, coupled modes, induced mechanism of various group stress elements which cause subject to make and spread conformity behavior, an irrational "herd phenomenon" formation element system is constructed. On this basis, by explaining irrational "herd phenomenon" system dynamics relationship between scenarios, designing adaptive evolution algorithms, constructing adaptive dynamic scenarios deduction scenario models, to grasp scenario evolution mechanism of irrational "herd phenomenon". According to the evolution scenarios, by studying on logic inference models and calculation models of improvisation decision psychological cognitive process, establishing key decision points, designing decision making rules, to explore improvisation decision support methods for "herd phenomenon" irrational herd behavior. Combining experiments calculations and empirical studies, to validate the proposed theory and content. This research will provide a theoretical basis and ideas for emergencies in order to improve the quality of unconventional emergency management.