松散堆积体滑坡在我国工程建设中广泛涉及，与降雨密切相关，具有爆发频率高、危害大的特点，严重威胁建设发展和人民生命财产安全。堆积体坡的宏观工程特性和入渗、变形、失稳机理比一般土坡更为复杂，根本原因在于空间分布变异性显著。针对现场取样数据有限离散、空间变异性表征困难、稳定性分析难以反映实际等研究现状的不足，本项目拟采用理论研究、数值分析、模型试验和工程应用相结合的方法，通过软硬数据融合和空间变异模型参数概率反演，提出基于协克里金和马尔科夫蒙特卡罗的数据融合概率反演方法，建立基于勘察数据的堆积体坡稳定性随机分析模型，揭示空间变异堆积体坡入渗失稳机理，提出灾害防控的勘察方案优选方法和工程治理措施要点。本项目的研究将深化堆积体坡失稳机理的认识，为合理评价堆积体坡稳定性和可靠度提供了重要的理论基础和分析方法，有助于推动岩土工程可靠度和风险控制理论的发展，为灾害防控提供科学依据和技术保障。

Slope failures in loose colluviums, which are mostly affected by intense rainfall, are common problems in engineering projects of China. The infiltration process, deformation behavior and failure mechanism of colluvium slopes are different from the soil slopes. The main reason is that the spatial variability of colluvium slopes is significant. In previous studies, due to limited number of samples, the characterization of spatial variability for colluvium is subject to large uncertainties. Hence, the evaluation of slope stability cannot reflect the real in-situ performance. In this project, the characterization of spatial variability and the stability of randomly heterogeneous colluvium slopes will be investigated through theoretical analysis, numerical modeling, physical model tests and application to real projects. A probabilistic back analysis method for estimating parameters of spatial variability will be developed using cokriging and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The data of sampling and geophysical investigation can be integrated. A stochastic slope stability model of randomly heterogeneous colluvium slopes is developed. The infiltration and failure mechanism of randomly heterogeneous colluvium slopes will be investigated through stochastic analyses and physical model tests. An optimization method of site investigation will be proposed. The effectiveness of common remediation techniques will be investigated and some suggestions are provided. The research findings of this project will improve our understanding of colluvium landslides and provide reliable methods for slope stability and reliability analysis. This project will promote the development of geotechnical reliability and risk field and provide scientific basis and technical support for hazard prevention and control.