液压AGC系统是保证板厚精度的核心控制系统，存在高度非线性、时变性、强耦合和大滞后等特性，故障危害严重且诱因不易确定。本项目针对液压AGC系统的特点，以提高轧制过程运行的稳定性、减少设备的故障发生率为目标，研究新颖实用的多级混合建模方法并建立系统的非线性动力学模型；探究不同参数激励下系统的分岔及混沌行为并揭示故障的形成机理和诱因；研究更具针对性的混沌识别与控制新方法；研究机理、数据和知识深度交叉融合的健康状态评估方法；开发非线性动力学行为及健康状态评估预报仿真验证平台，以解决制约液压AGC系统难以精确建模、故障诱因难以确定、故障机理难以探究等难题。研究成果不仅可以为液压AGC系统机电液耦合非线性动力学性能评价及系统优化设计奠定理论基础，而且可以丰富故障诊断与预报的理论体系，为国产自主知识产权的轧制厚控系统的研发和技术推广提供原创性关键共性技术，解决冷连轧制生产过程的急需。

Hydraulic automatic gauge control (AGC) system is a core control system to guarantee the accuracy of the plate thickness. It possesses some features such as highly nonlinearity, time variation, strong coupling and large lag. Once a fault occurs, there will be a serious and harmful consequence. Moreover, it is difficult to determine the incentive. Taking the characteristics of AGC system into account, the project is aimed at improving the operational stability in rolling process and reducing the fault rate of equipments. Then, the novel multi-level hybrid modeling method is researched and a nonlinear dynamics model of system is established. The bifurcation and chaotic behavior of system under different parametric excitation are explored, moreover, the fault mechanism and incentives are revealed. The new methods pointed at chaos identification and control are studied. The health assessment methods are researched, which are deeply intercrossed and fused with mechanism, data, and knowledge. Finally, a platform with the function of nonlinear dynamics behavior simulation and health assessment prediction is exploited. Based on the above, we try to solve the existing difficult problems, for instance, modeling AGC system, determining fault incentive, and exploring fault mechanism. The research will not only establish the theoretical foundation for nonlinear dynamics performance evaluation and optimization design of AGC system, but also enrich the theoretical system of fault diagnosis and prediction. Furthermore, the achievements will provide the original key generic technologies for the research and technology promotion of rolling gauge control system with autonomous intellectual property, which can solve the urgent problems in rolling process of tandem cold mill.