会计信息在宏观经济预测中能够发挥怎样的作用，其内在机理和基本路径是什么？在中国情境下，上述逻辑有何特色和不同？这其中，不同类型会计信息的宏观预测功能有何差异，数字会计信息和文本会计信息各自发挥怎样的作用，其交互影响的机理是什么？项目拟基于中国情景，从权责发生制和管理者灵活性视角出发，系统考察会计信息在宏观经济预测中的功能定位、逻辑路径和本质规律。项目的特色在于：一是将研究命题根植于中国情景，将制度背景、产权异质性、地区化差异、管理层特有动机等“中国元素”与会计技术相结合，探究会计信息预测宏观经济的中国逻辑；二是将研究置于互联网和大数据背景下，系统研究数字会计信息和文本信息各自的宏观预测价值及其交互作用；三是将会计信息预测宏观经济的视角从GDP拓展至其他重要宏观经济指标。本项目旨在打开微观会计信息预测未来宏观经济的“黑箱”，同时为政府政策制定、企业经营管理和利益相关者决策提供理论与实证证据。

What roles does accounting information play in predicting macroeconomy? What are the mechanisms through which accounting information plays such roles? How will the answers to these important questions differ in the Chinese setting than in the Western counterparts? In particular, do different types of accounting information show different predictive power, how does numerical and textual accounting information functions respectively and interacts with each other? From the perspectives of accruals basis and managerial discretions, this project aims to systematically examine the positionings, mechanisms and patterns of accounting information in predicting Chinese macroeconomy. The distinguishing features of this project are as follows: 1. Deeply imbedded in the Chinese setting, the research integrates accounting technics into the “Chinese elements” such as institutional background, property rights heterogeneity, geographical disparity and managerial motives; 2. Against the backdrop of burgeoning internet and big data technologies, this research explores the functions of numerical and textual accounting information respectively, as well as their interactions; 3. This research goes beyond GDP, and expands the list of macroeconomic variables that accounting information can predict. All in all, this project aims to unwarp the “black box” in prior studies about micro accounting information’s predictability in macroeconomy. In the meantime, we will provide valuable theoretical analyses and empirical evidence to the regulators, managers and other stakeholders.