高速公路改扩建和养护施工区的交通事故多于一般路段，现无合适的交通安全评价方法。因施工区限制性因素独特，现有交通冲突法难以适用。交通冲突、交通风险和交通事故三者时空交互演化机理是施工区交安评价和自动驾驶交通冲突风险识别的基础。.采用路上自然实验法，观测典型施工区内车辆运行连续轨迹，通过相互作用的交通冲突车辆轨迹特征识别传统预定碰撞轨迹和新型非预定碰撞轨迹交通冲突，交通冲突内涵由车-车拓展到车-路，改进既有并建立新类型交通冲突的风险识别指标；增强现场录像法交通冲突严重性主观判别一致性，确定交通冲突和主观风险间关系；考虑冲突车辆及运行特征，运用碰撞理论、动量和能量守恒原理对交通冲突后果严重性进行度量，克服速度差法缺陷；基于实测数据，运用方差法和主基底法确定交通冲突及其形成交通事故的主因素，采取贝叶斯网络构建施工区交通冲突预测不确定性模型以及交通冲突与交通事故关系模型，建立施工区交通评价方法体系。

The traffic accidents in work zone of highway reconstruction and maintenance are more than general highway，there is no proper traffic safety evaluation method at present. Because of unique restrictive factors in work zone, the existing traffic conflict technique is difficult to apply. The interaction evolution mechanism of traffic conflict, traffic risk and traffic accident in time and space is the basis of safety evaluation in work zone and identification of traffic risk in automated driving..We will observe continuous vehicle moving trajectory in typical work zone with natural experiment method in highway, recognizing collision course and non-collision course conflicts by interacted conflict vehicle trajectory, including car-road conflict connotation , improving and establishing traffic conflict index; Enhancing subjective discriminant method of traffic conflict severity consistency by the scene video, and the relationship between traffic conflicts and subjective risk will be confirmed; Considering the conflict vehicles characteristics, we use collision theory, momentum and energy conservation principle to measure traffic conflict severity, to overcome the disadvantages of speed difference method; Based on the measured data, using variance method to determine the main factors of traffic conflict and accidents, take bayesian network to build traffic conflicts forecasting model and the model between traffic conflicts and traffic accident in work zone, establishing traffic safety evaluation method system of highway work zone.