热盐环流影响东亚冬、夏季风反位相演变的显著性及机制研究

东亚冬、夏季风的反位相演变是历史上全球显著增暖阶段－"末次冰消期"期间地质重建资料所反映出的一个重要现象。前人的研究表明，热盐环流的大幅度变化可能是导致该现象出现的主要影响因子，但在影响的显著性及机制等方面仍缺乏系统的研究。本项目从古气候资料所揭示的现象出发，拟利用国内和国外的两种优秀气候系统模式，分析热盐环流的大幅度变化影响东亚冬、夏季风的显著性及特征，以及相应东亚冬、夏季风反位相演变现象的显著性，并分析导致该现象产生的可能机制。进而在模式分析的基础上，判断东亚季风历史反位相演变的成因，并尝试探索东亚季风气候在未来热盐环流的可能减弱幅度下所对应的响应特征。本项目的实施可以进一步加深认识热盐环流影响东亚季风气候的特征及机制，明确东亚季风历史反位相演变现象的成因，并为未来东亚冬、夏季风演变的预测提供一定的参考依据。

The anti-phase change of East Asia Winter and Summer Monsoon (EAWM & EASM) is robust during the historical global warming period of last deglaciation, which proposed by reconstructed proxies. Previous studies show that, Thermohaline Circulation (THC) seems like the main cause of this phenomenon. But, the associated effecting significances and the possible mechanisms still need study systematically. This project is derived from the paleo-climate phenomenon, plan to analysis the effecting significance and mechanisms of THC's large changes on EAWM and EASM, the significance of anti-phase changes between EAWM and EASM, and the related mechanism in simulations of two excellent climate system models. Based on the results of model simulations, we confirm or deny the hypothesis of the cause to the past anti-phase changes in EAWM and EASM, and have a try to propose the possible impacts of projected changes of THC on EAWM and EASM in future. The implementation of this project is thought to not only enrich our understanding about the influencing charateristics and mechanims of THC on EAWM and EASM, nail down the cause of past changes of EAWM and EASM during last deglaciation, also could provide helpful referrence to the forcast of EAWM and EASM changes under ongoing global warming.