AMOC年代际波动的双模态及其在增暖下的演变

大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的年代际波动是北半球气候年代际变化的主要调控因子。长气候观测指出北大西洋气候存在20年、70年两个年代尺度的主导周期，说明AMOC年代尺度的波动模态可能并不唯一，且其在全球增暖下的变异可能是多模态间的非一致性演变的结果。本项目拟在破除只存在一个AMOC年代尺度波动模态认识的基础上，采用AMOC多指数综合分析方法，通过气候模式间的交叉对比、有限观测资料的验证及动力学理论的约束，分析AMOC年代尺度波动双模态的基本特征、形成机制、相互间的关系及其与北大西洋气候年代际双主周期间的关系，并进一步研究全球增暖下各模态的消、长特征及机制。本项目的研究将有助于加深认识AMOC及气候的年代尺度波动特征，以及影响未来气候年代尺度波动行为的AMOC年代尺度波动的演变。

Interdecadal variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a dominant modulator of the interdecadal climate oscillation of North Hemisphere. Long observation of climatic variables show that two dominant periods of about 20 and 70 years existing around North Atlantic (NA), which indicate the possible existence of multiple modes of AMOC interdecadal variability, and the changes of AMOC interdecadal variability under global warming is the result of non-uniform changes of multiple modes. Based on correcting the opinion that there is only one mode of AMOC interdecadal variability, and using coherent multiple index analysis of AMOC, our project study the basic features / physical mechanism / interaction / correlation with two dominant periods in NA of AMOC interdecadal variability through the cross-correlation analysis between models, validation with observations and dynamical analysis, furthermore, detect the non-uniform changes of multiple modes of AMOC interdecadal variability under global warming. The results of this project will contribute to the understanding of the interdecadal variability of AMOC and climate system, also contribute to the projection of the changes of AMOC interdecadal variability under global warming which may effect the future climate oscillation.