本项目立足于当代中国三大重要现象：不断推进的贸易自由化、不断提高的老龄人口比例和不断下降的生育率。随着全球化的发展，贸易自由化对决定生育率的作用亦不容忽视。本研究试图考察中国近二十年贸易自由化进程对个体生育行为的影响及其政策含义。本项目的研究内容包括：第一，定性与定量分析贸易自由化对个体生育决策的影响及其影响机制，从生育行为角度估计贸易自由化带来的隐形成本；第二、分析贸易自由化对个体生育决策影响的异质性以及非正规就业与社会保障对该可能存在的消极影响的缓冲作用；第三、结合背景分析、实证分析和政策分析，提出有针对性的与产业结构调整和劳动力市场相关政策有关的政策建议。本研究有助于从个体生育决策的角度，全面系统理解贸易自由化对中国经济社会带来的隐性成本，为消除性别歧视、破局老龄化问题、顺利推行“全面二孩”政策，实现人口数量和质量的长期增长提供经验与启示。

This project is based on three important trends in China: the rapid process of trade liberalization, the increasing aging proportional ratio and the decreasing fertility. In the framework of trade liberalization, the project aims to examine the difference in fertility, its mechanisms and policy implications in the last two decades in China. Firstly, the project examines the impact of trade liberalization on fertility and the mechanisms, and qualify the cost of trade liberalization; Secondly, the project examines the effect of trade liberalization on fertility by investigating the heterogeneous effects and estimates the buffer function of formal employment and social security on this potential hidden cost; Thirdly, combining with the background analysis, empirical analysis and policy analysis, this project could propose the suggestions for the development of international trade and labor market policies in order to provide conducive reference for expanding of trade and long-term population growth. This project aims to have a comprehensive understanding of trade liberalization’s hidden cost for China’s development in economics and society from the perspective of individual fertility decision. This project also provides experience and insights to the policy-makers for eliminating the gender discrimination, solving the aging problem, successfully promoting fertility policy and long-term growth of population and quality.