气候与土地利用变化对不同尺度外来入侵植物互花米草分布区扩张的影响

生物入侵、气候变化和土地利用变化既是全球变化的三个重要组分，也是当前物种多样性丧失的主要原因。随着全球变暖与人类活动的加剧，气候与土地利用变化对外来入侵植物分布区扩张影响日趋增强，然而很少耦合气候与土地利用变化的共同影响。由于入侵植物扩张的影响因素是高度尺度依赖的，因此，必须研究气候和土地利用变化对其分布区不同尺度扩张的共同影响，才能准确地预估其在当前和未来气候变化和土地利变化情景下的潜在分布，从而评估入侵风险和实现有效控制。本项目以互花米草为例，从区域、景观和本地三个尺度，基于遥感和GIS,耦合生态位模型和基于个体的空间显性模型，通过模型模拟和情景分析相结合，研究在当前和未来不同气候变化和土地利用变化情景下外来入侵植物分布区的多尺度格局和扩张过程；确定入侵重点监控区；揭示气候变化和土地利用变化对入侵植物分布区不同尺度扩张的影响；以期为外来植物入侵控制和物种多样性保护提供理论基础和决策支持

Biological invasion,climate changes and land use changes,are not only the major components of global changes, but also the major causes of species loss. As global change is accelerating, the interaction between them is increasing.However,there are few studies focus on the coupling effects of climate and land use changes on plant invasion. Because the factors affecting plant invasion are scale-dependent, it is necessary to take the multiple scales of invasion into consideration to explore the dispersal mechanism of exotic plant.In the meantime,it relies on a good knowledge of the species distribution under current and future climates and land use to evaluate the invasion risk and control it effectively. In this study, as a case study of Spartina alterniflora, firstly, the range expansion of S.alterniflora and the area needed for monitoring under currunt and future climates and land use changes are simulated by combining species distribution models with individual-based spatial explicitly model.Secondly, priority areas for monitoring and control of S. alterniflora are provided. Finally,the relative contribution of climate changes ,land use, enviroment factors, dispersal process, species interactionat to the range expansion of invasive species at region,landscape and local scales, and the dispersal mechanisms of S. alterniflora have been studied. We hope these studies will help to deepen the understandings of the effects of climate changes and land use on plant invasion and provide decision support for invasion control.