本项目研究对外贸易和劳动力市场摩擦对产业结构变迁的作用，并将理论分析应用于改革开放以来我国的发展历程。通过建立一个两国多部门动态一般均衡模型，将Eaton & Kortum (2002)的定量李嘉图贸易框架引入传统的结构转型分析并允许贸易失衡和劳动力市场摩擦，本项目旨在拓展结构转型研究的前沿，放松现有考虑贸易的结构转型模型忽略资本积累和贸易失衡的限制，提供对我国结构转型研究中的贸易因素的系统性分析，并突出贸易成本和劳动力市场摩擦的交互作用。本项目采用规范严谨的定量分析来量化改革开放以来多种因素对我国产业结构转型的影响，预测我国经济的未来走向，并对不同的政策工具进行福利分析，可以加深我们对改革以来结构变迁的理解并为未来的政策制定提供科学依据。

This project plans to develop a quantitative model to study the role of international trade and labor market frictions on structural transformation, and apply the framework to the Chinese economy during the reform era. The project builds a two-country multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model which merges the Eaton & Kortum (2002) quantitative Ricardian trade framework with a traditional model of structural transformation and introduces international trade imbalance and labor market frictions. The model extends existing studies of the role of trade on structural transformation by considering capital accumulation and trade imbalance simultaneously. It expands the frontier of structural transformation analysis, serves to provide a systematic analysis of the role of international openness on China’s structural transformation, and emphasizes the interaction of reduction in trade costs and labor market frictions. Adopting standard tools of quantitative macroeconomic analysis, this project numerically evaluates the impact of various factors on China’s structural transformation, provides forecasts of China’s future economic growth, and performs welfare analysis of different sorts of policy tools. The purpose of this analysis is to deepen our understanding of China’s structural transformation during the reform era and inform future policy-making scientifically.