农业信用担保制度有效性评价、风险控制与体系构建研究

农业信用保证担保是以人为载体的第三方信用担保产品创新，也是解决农户与涉农中小企业“抵押难、担保难、贷款难”问题的一种制度安排。本研究以全国农业信贷担保体系组建为背景，在大样本实地调查、问卷调查基础上，运用归纳与演绎、案例分析以及Ordinal、Order-Probit、Poisson-Hurdle、A-FA模型等计量经济学方法，从农户和涉农中小企业担保认知、意愿、响应与效果等四个层面对农业信用担保制度的有效性进行科学评价；运用三阶段DEA、Tobit、Oaxaca-Blinder、COV-AHP等模型，对不同区域农业担保机构运行效率和风险控制状况进行测算、分解和检验；运用Monte Carlo Method方法对农业信用担保体系构建方案进行实证模拟，提出水平层次与垂直层次农业信用保证担保桥接体系设计方案与支持政策，为形成具有中国特色的农业信用保证担保体系提供科学依据和决策参考。

Agricultural credit guarantee is a third-party credit guarantee product innovation based on man-made carrier. It is also one kind of institutional arrangements to solve the problems of “difficulties in collateral, guarantee and loan” for farmers and Agricultural SMEs. Based on the establishment of the national agricultural credit guarantee system, this study uses a large number of data from field surveys as research support. Using inductive and deductive method, case analysis method and econometrics methods such as Ordinal, Order-Probit, Poisson-Hurdle and A-FA model, this research conducts a scientific assessment of the effectiveness of the agricultural credit guarantee system through the cognition, willingness, response and effectiveness of guarantee for farmers and SMEs involved in agriculture. The methods of three-stage DEA, Tobit, Oaxaca-Blinder and COV-AHP are applied to calculate, decompose and test the operation efficiency and risk control status of agricultural guarantee institutions in different regions.By using the method of Monte Carlo to conduct empirical simulation of the agricultural credit guarantee system, this research proposes a horizontal level and vertical level of agricultural credit guarantee bridge system design and supporting policies, which provide scientific basis and decision references for the agricultural credit guarantee system with Chinese characteristics.