在人口老龄化加剧的背景下，本课题拟分析由养老保险政策与房价变动引起的家庭收入与资产变动，进而对退休决策产生影响。我们首先借助2005年养老保险政策调整以及不同群体法定退休年龄不同作为“自然实验”，在控制系列变量的前提下，辨识出养老金待遇计发办法、法定退休年龄等对退休行为的影响，并进一步分析其宏观影响。其次，通过利用微观数据构造城市面板分析了房价变动对老年人退休行为的影响。最后，在实证证据的指导下，构造符合中国国情的结构模型并用中国的微观数据进行校准，定量地分析不同因素的相对影响效果，并在一般均衡框架下分析了诸如延迟退休，房产税等政策的实施效果。本课题的研究在理论上有助于厘清老年人退休过早的真实原因，同时，对于“人口红利”逐渐消失，养老金收支平衡压力变得越来越大的现实中国，也能提供政策上的指导。

In this project, we study the retire effect of the household income and wealth change caused by China pension system and rising housing price. Specifically, we firstly estimate the effect of pension benefit reduction cased by 2005 pension reform and different mandatory retirement age of different industry on the retirement of old age person, further more we study the macro effect of the retirement. Then we study the retirement effect of rising housing price using city panel data conducted by individual survey data. Given the empirical evidence, we build a structure model with China feature, calibrate the parameter using China micro-level data, and then study the relative importance of the effects quantitatively. At last we analysis the macro effect of potential policy issues such as delay retirement, property taxes, etc. Our study sheds light on the empirical research of the true reason of retirement theoretically. It also has important policy implications under the circumstance of the end of demographic dividend and the challenge of the sustainability of pension system in China.