针对我国房地产调控“政策失效”的现象，对业已颁布的房地产政策给予客观合理的评价对于总结政府工作和指导未来政策走向都具有极其重要的意义。现有对于房地产政策的研究仍然是定性思辨多，缺乏对各类型调控政策作用方式的系统性实证研究。本课题拟根据TEI@I的研究框架集成文本挖掘、经济计量以及智能计算的方法优势对我国房地产调控政策进行量化处理，以对市场数据进行挖掘为基础，综合考虑房地产业与其他相关行业多种类型的联动效应，通过仿真模拟再现调控政策的作用机制与演化方式。最后将政策的干扰作用纳入到对市场的波动预测模型中，一方面验证本研究对政策的模拟的效果，另一方面预测结果可以为政策制定者或市场投资者提供参考和借鉴。研究可以诠释政府政策实施中不同要素的作用机制，细化了政策研究的视角，同时尝试将数据挖掘与政策文本研究相结合，丰富了房地产政策研究的理论与方法。

It has extremely vital significance to give a reasonable evaluation to Chinese government’s estate regulation policies for there are serious policy failures on estate regulation in China recent years, not only for government accountability, but also for correct policy orientation in the future. The current studies on real estate policies are still emphasize particularly on qualitative research, lack of systematic empirical research on the effect way of different type of regulation and control policies. According to the TEI@I framework, this topic proposed to integrate the text mining, econometrics and intelligent computing methods to quantify the real estate regulation policies and simulate its action mechanisms and evolution modes on the basis of market data mining, comprehensive considerate the variety types of linkage effects between real estate industry and other related industries. Finally a forecasting model which incorporate the interference effect of the polices to the market fluctuations is proposed, on one hand to verify the simulation accuracy by forecasting the future direction of estate market, one the other hand the forecast result can provide reference for policy maker or the market investors. This study which combines the data mining techniques and policy text research illustrates the implementation mechanism of different elements in the government’s policies from a more sophisticated research angle view, enriches the theories and methods of the real estate policy studies.