滑坡是一个地质力学过程复杂的非线性系统，内部条件和外部因素具有很强的随机性和非确定性。当前滑坡预报较多地依赖于变形监测结果的数学推演，坡体内滑动力和强度变化信息获取不足，难以建立普适性较强的综合预报模型和指标体系。本项目针对滑坡预报的现状与不足，以安太堡露天矿边坡为研究对象，基于非线性系统加卸载响应比思想，构建以滑动力和位移为主要参数的综合预报模型，探究滑动力-位移联合预报机理。依托安太堡露天矿边坡监测工程，引入数据挖掘技术，从大量监测数据中智能抽取科学有效的数据信息，对理论模型进行现场应用与合理性验证，根据应用结果完善理论模型。此外，借助GIS三维可视化技术，在ArcGIS平台下构建边坡三维工程地质模型，将滑坡综合预报计算结果与三维模型进行叠置分析，实现滑坡灾害滑动力-位移综合预警预报的三维可视化。通过该项目研究，预期提高滑坡预警预报的成功率及信息化水平。

Landslide is a nonlinear system of complex geological mechanics process, the internal conditions and external factors have strong randomness and uncertainty. At present, landslide prediction mainly depends on the deformation monitoring results of mathematical deduction, the obtained information of slope body stress and intensity change is insufficient, it is difficult to establish comprehensive forecast model and index system of general applicability. Aiming at the current station and deficiencies of landslide forecast, this project will take AnTaiBao open-pit mine slope as the subject investigated, based on the nonlinear system LURR thought, to build the integrated forecast model with the main parameters of sliding force and displacement, and explore the joint forecast mechanism. Based on AnTaiBao open-pit mine slope monitoring project, data mining technique is introduced, scientific and effective data information will be intelligently extracted from the massive monitoring data, to conduct on-site application and rationality demonstration of the theoretical model, and perfect theoretical model according to the results of the application. In addition, with the aid of GIS 3D visualization technology, 3D engineering geological model of slope will be established at ArcGIS platform, landslide comprehensive prediction calculation results will be superposed with the 3D model, and the 3D visualization of landslide sliding force–displacement comprehensive early warning will be achieved. Through this project research, the success rate and informationalized level of landslide early warning are expected to improve.