黑龙江区域气候、冻土和野火动态对水文和植物影响的数值模拟研究

研究中国东北土壤冻融层动力学、土壤含水状态、野火行为和植被间的大范围反馈机制，需要定量模拟对植被结构和天然湿地面积的影响，从而加深气候变暖和变干对植被结构和湿地面积影响的理解。本项目将地球观测数据产品和预测模型相结合，用于研究最近十年（2005-2015年）气候变化和水资源利用对黑龙江省及黑龙江沿岸俄罗斯地区大范围的天然湿地和森林稳定性的影响，并对未来二十年（2016-2035）做出预测。重点开展以下四方面的研究：1）比较湿地面积和林地面积的变化速度；2）湿地和森林的稳定性对气候变化和逐步增强的水资源利用的响应；3）冻融层厚度、野火发生频率和植被动力学之间的相互作用以及与森林和湿地面积变化之间的关系；4）土地利用对只受气候影响的“潜在”植被和湿地面积变化的影响。在此基础上，我们评估湿地面积与森林面积改变对辐射强迫的实际影响；以及湿地或者林地面积的变化与生物多样性保护重点区域的关系。

The suggested project is aimed to study climate change and water use (uptake for agriculture and hydrological projects) impacts on large scale stability of natural wetlands and forested areas in Heilongjiang Province and bordering Russian side of the Heilongjiang River (so named Low Amur River basin) for recent time (2005-2015) and for two future decades. We are going to assess a) what is changing more rapidly (in relative units) areas of wetlands or areas of forests b) what is more critical for stability of wetlands and forests climate change (drying and warming) or extensive water use (water uptake for agricultural purposes and hydrological projects) in the case study area c) to which extent interaction of active layer depth, wildfire frequency and vegetation dynamics accelerates or decelerates changes in area of wetlands and areas of forests d) to which extent recent land use has changed areas of wetlands and areas of forests in comparison with determined by climate only “potential” vegetation and wetlands case. As an additional bonus step we are going to estimate for the recent decade and two future decades in the case study area a) what will be resulting effect on radiative forcing of changes in areas of wetlands with associated variation in methane emissions versus change in areas of area of forests with associated variation in carbon dioxide emissions and b) if changes of areas of wetlands and/or changes in area of forest will coincide with important biodiversity areas (habitat of rare migrating birds and habitat of charismatic mammals). The scientific objectives of the study will be achieved by modification and adoption of existing DGVMs for the case study area as well as harmonization of large scale RS based data products. For this we are going to elaborate innovative repeatable technologies for fusion of Earth Observation Data and Predictive Modelling (in particularly DGVMs and high-resolution RS land cover products and large scale fire and permafrost hydrology models and RS fires products). Planned assessment of state areas of wetlands and areas of forests at North-East of China in conditions of rapid climate change, land use transformation and increase in water use is necessary for China in view of international and national obligations to alleviate possible conflicts between land use and water uptake and nature conservation, to maintain carbon sequestration and important biodiversity areas in the Heilongjiang Province.