气候变化对中国棉花生产和耗水影响的不确定性研究

针对评价气候变化对农业影响中产生的不确定性问题，探讨作物模型和未来气候模式的不确定性及其解决方法，研究气候变化对中国两大棉区棉花生产和耗水影响的时空变化规律，为响应未来气候变化制定棉花生产的适应性策略提供可信的依据。作物模型的不确定性表现在单一模型功能缺陷、参数的不确定性和空间尺度应用上的不确定性。本项目拟在典型站点试验、空间调查数据以及遥感数据的支持下，利用多种作物模型联合模拟、参数的充分较验及调整、搭建作物模型和遥感信息的同化系统等方法解决作物模型的不确定性；同时利用最新的统计降尺度方法和独立加权集合的方法解决未来气候模式的不确定性。最后利用多种气候模式的集合预报结果驱动经过充分时空尺度较验的作物模型，分析中国主要产棉区棉花生产和耗水对气候变化的时空响应并作出适应性评价。

Uncertainty of crop models and climatic data projections will be studied to solve the incertitude problem in evaluating the impact of climatic change on agriculture. More reliable results are expected by setting up methods to solve the uncertainty both in crop models and GCMs. Ensemble of multi-crop-models will be conducted to remedy the defect of dysfunction of individual crop model. Analysis of the sensitivity of crop models to parameters in both temporal and spatial scale based on the field experiments and investigations will also be carried out to get a set of reliable parameters. With the aid of the assimilation system for crop models and remote sensing data, the limitation of the regional application of the crop growth model will be improved. The most advanced downscaling and ensemble methods (independent weighting method) will be used to project climatic data with highly spatial and temporal resolution, which will assure the accuracy of crop model results. Finally the spatio-temporal responses of cotton growth and water use to climatic change will be evaluated and the suggestion on adaptation strategy will be given.