犯罪者、潜在受害者和监管者的活动分布对侵财犯罪时空格局有重要的影响，但已有的研究主要关注潜在受害者和监管者，对犯罪者日常活动的探讨仍较缺乏。本项目以广州市为研究区域，以犯罪者日常活动为主线，开展侵财犯罪时空格局分析、预测与警务防控实验研究。首先基于犯罪者ID，融合犯罪者抓获数据、摄像头数据、盘查数据及问卷调查数据，识别犯罪者日常活动节点及路径，挖掘其犯罪日常活动和不同类型非犯罪日常活动的规律；研究犯罪者“居住地-不同类型活动地－作案地”的关系，探讨其对犯罪时空格局的影响；利用长短时记忆法和时间卷积网络等时序机器学习技术建立基于犯罪者活动与犯罪时空格局关系的预测模型；制定警务防控措施，开展警务实验对其进行完善，从而丰富犯罪地理理论，提升和完善犯罪预测参数体系与方法，并使研究成果落地。申请人长期从事犯罪地理研究，所在团队与广州市公安局合作紧密，积累了大量本项目所需的数据，保障了项目的顺利开展。

The distribution of offenders, potential victims and guardians are important factors that affect the spatio-temporal pattern of property crimes. There is much literature on potential victims and guardians, while little research on the routine activities of offenders. Taking Guangzhou as the research area, this project takes the routine activities of offenders as the main line to carry out the spatio-temporal pattern analysis, prediction and police prevention experiments research on property crimes. Firstly, based on the offenders’ ID, the capture data, camera identification data, patrol data and questionnaire of the offenders are integrated to identify their routine activity nodes and paths, and then to mine the patterns of their crime-oriented activities and different types of non-crime-oriented routine activities. Secondly, The relationship among "residence - different activity places - crime place" and its influence on the spatio-temporal pattern of crimes will be examined. Thirdly, machine learning technologies (long short term memory network and temporal convolutional network) are used to establish prediction models based on the spatio-temporal pattern relationship between offenders’ activities and crime. Fourthly, crime prevention measures will be formulated, and police experiments will be carried out. This project aims to enrich the theory of crime geography, perfect the parameters and methods of crime prediction, and make the research effectively applied to daily police work. The applicant has been engaged in the study of crime geography for a long time. The team she belongs to has cooperated closely with Guangzhou Municipal Public Security Bureau, which has accumulated rich data needed for the project, thus providing a guarantee for the implement of the project.